The School of Odds
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Botafogo v Athletic Club (MG)

Kickoff: 2026-05-25 22:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 1–2 Athletic Club (MG)

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 43.30%2.31fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.42%43.52%43.16%46.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.112.142.2051.28%47.29%46.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV +5.53%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.72%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.85%24.77%25.20%26.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.733.764.2130.30%26.82%26.56%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.63%3.16fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.59%31.71%31.65%33.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.0037.04%34.56%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 43.30%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 25.07%; Draw: 31.63%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.75%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.85%EV +5.53%E +1.31%K +1.72%G +0.095%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.40%EV -6.06%E -2.04%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-25 21:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV +0.266%E +0.067%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -12.07%E -4.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-25 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV +0.266%E +0.067%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -12.07%E -4.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-25 21:49
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -11.23%E -5.48%K -10.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV +0.266%E +0.067%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:49
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.24%E -0.574%K -0.773%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-25 21:50
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.91%EV -11.66%E -5.72%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -2.24%E -0.574%K -0.773%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.59%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-25 21:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.27%EV -15.56%E -7.98%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -2.24%E -0.574%K -0.773%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-25 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.78%EV -11.66%E -5.72%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -3.49%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-25 21:49
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.92%EV -12.53%E -6.20%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -3.49%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.51%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-25 21:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-25 21:50
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-25 21:49
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-25 21:48
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -13.40%E -6.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-25 21:50
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -13.40%E -6.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-25 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -13.40%E -6.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-25 21:49
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -8.20%E -3.87%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.71%EV -5.25%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.24%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 21:49
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -6.00%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.26%EV -9.22%E -3.21%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 21:50
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.00%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.64%E -2.62%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.00%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.64%E -2.62%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.14%EV -7.77%E -3.65%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.69%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -6.03%E -2.78%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-25 21:50
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-25 21:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 21:49
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 21:50
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:50
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-25 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-25 21:49
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.01%E -3.10%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-25 21:49
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -12.27%E -3.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-25 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.27%E -3.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-25 21:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -11.23%E -5.48%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -12.27%E -3.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-25 21:50
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:50
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -17.28%E -5.24%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-25 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-05-25 21:50