La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Athletic Club (MG)

Inicio: 2026-05-25 22:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 1–2 Athletic Club (MG)

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 43.30%2.31momio equitativo
EV -4.74%
Ventaja -2.15%
Kelly -3.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.42%43.52%43.16%46.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.952.112.142.2051.28%47.29%46.73%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)

Predicción 25.07%3.99momio equitativo
EV +5.53%
Ventaja +1.31%
Kelly +1.72%
Crecimiento +0.095%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.85%24.77%25.20%26.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.733.764.2130.30%26.82%26.56%23.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.63%3.16momio equitativo
EV -5.11%
Ventaja -1.70%
Kelly -2.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.59%31.71%31.65%33.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.892.903.0037.04%34.56%34.48%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.15I 46.51%NM 44.75%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.85%EV +5.53%E +1.31%K +1.72%G +0.095%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.40%EV -6.06%E -2.04%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-25 21:40
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV +0.266%E +0.067%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -12.07%E -4.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-25 21:50
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV +0.266%E +0.067%K +0.089%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -12.07%E -4.34%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-25 21:49
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -11.23%E -5.48%K -10.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV +0.266%E +0.067%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 21:45
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:49
Casumo2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
Unibet (NL)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:49
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -9.93%E -4.77%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -0.987%E -0.250%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-25 21:50
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.24%E -0.574%K -0.773%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-25 21:50
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 44.91%EV -11.66%E -5.72%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -2.24%E -0.574%K -0.773%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.59%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-25 21:49
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.27%EV -15.56%E -7.98%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -2.24%E -0.574%K -0.773%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-25 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 44.78%EV -11.66%E -5.72%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -3.49%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-25 21:49
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 44.92%EV -12.53%E -6.20%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -3.49%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.51%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-25 21:50
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-25 21:50
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-25 21:49
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-25 21:48
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -13.40%E -6.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-25 21:50
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -13.40%E -6.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-25 21:50
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -13.40%E -6.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-25 21:49
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -8.20%E -3.87%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.71%EV -5.25%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.24%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-25 21:49
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -6.00%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.26%EV -9.22%E -3.21%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-25 21:50
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 43.00%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.64%E -2.62%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 21:50
NordicBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.00%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -7.64%E -2.62%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 21:50
Codere (IT)2.13I 46.95%NM 43.14%EV -7.77%E -3.65%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.69%EV -8.27%E -2.85%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Coolbet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -6.03%E -2.78%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-25 21:50
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-25 21:49
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-25 21:49
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-25 21:50
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:50
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:50
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:49
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.74%E -2.15%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-25 21:50
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -6.69%E -2.27%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-25 21:50
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-25 21:49
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.01%E -3.10%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-25 21:49
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -12.27%E -3.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -9.85%E -3.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-25 21:50
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.27%E -3.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -8.90%E -3.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-25 21:50
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -11.23%E -5.48%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -12.27%E -3.50%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-25 21:50
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:50
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -6.90%E -3.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.43%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -9.07%E -4.32%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -17.28%E -5.24%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-25 21:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%0.8%2026-05-25 21:50
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-05-25 21:50