Language:English
Botafogo-SP v Criciuma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Prediction 39.52%2.53fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.63%39.37%39.50%40.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.352.4544.44%42.57%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Criciuma (Visit)
Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -0.663%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.263%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.91%28.34%28.07%30.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.193.203.5235.09%31.39%31.25%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.26%3.10fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.08%32.29%32.43%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.852.852.9536.36%35.10%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 39.52%; Criciuma (Visit): 28.22%; Draw: 32.26%. For Criciuma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.52, with an expected value of -0.663%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.60%EV -3.96%E -1.63%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.34%EV -0.663%E -0.188%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.07%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.66%EV -4.36%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 28.97%EV -8.85%E -2.74%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.37%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-20 00:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.93%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -5.74%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -10.32%E -3.71%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-20 00:26 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.85%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -16.75%E -5.68%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.92%EV -6.73%E -2.85%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.491%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-20 00:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.92%EV -6.73%E -2.85%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.491%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-20 00:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.92%EV -6.73%E -2.85%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.491%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-20 00:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -2.64%E -0.765%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -16.75%E -5.68%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-20 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -18.16%E -6.26%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -18.16%E -6.26%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.37%EV -7.52%E -3.21%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -10.32%E -3.71%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-20 00:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.57%EV -9.03%E -3.20%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.57%EV -9.03%E -3.20%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.56%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.63%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.63%EV -19.57%E -6.87%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.63%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.63%EV -19.57%E -6.87%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-20 00:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-20 00:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-20 00:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.82%EV -11.95%E -3.83%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-20 00:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.82%EV -11.95%E -3.83%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-20 00:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-20 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-20 00:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-20 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-20 00:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.18% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.14% | 0.4% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.41% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.81% | 1.4% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |