Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo-SP v Criciuma

Início: 2026-08-20 00:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo-SP 1–1 Criciuma

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo-SP (Local)

Previsão 39.52%2.53odd justa
EV -3.17%
Vantagem -1.29%
Kelly -2.19%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.63%39.37%39.50%40.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.352.352.4544.44%42.57%42.55%40.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Criciuma (Visitante)

Previsão 28.22%3.54odd justa
EV -0.663%
Vantagem -0.188%
Kelly -0.263%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.52

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.91%28.34%28.07%30.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.193.203.5235.09%31.39%31.25%28.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 32.26%3.10odd justa
EV -4.84%
Vantagem -1.64%
Kelly -2.48%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.08%32.29%32.43%33.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.852.852.9536.36%35.10%35.09%33.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Botafogo-SP (Local): 39.52%; Criciuma (Visitante): 28.22%; Empate: 32.26%. Para Criciuma (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.54. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.52, com valor esperado de -0.663%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.17%E -1.29%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.60%EV -3.96%E -1.63%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.34%EV -0.663%E -0.188%K -0.263%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.07%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-20 00:15
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.66%EV -4.36%E -1.80%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.97%EV -8.85%E -2.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.37%EV -6.78%E -2.34%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 00:20
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 00:05
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 00:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.93%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -5.74%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -10.32%E -3.71%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-20 00:20
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 00:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 00:25
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 00:25
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.85%EV -5.94%E -2.50%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -16.75%E -5.68%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.92%EV -6.73%E -2.85%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.491%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.92%EV -6.73%E -2.85%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.491%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 00:05
BetUS🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.92%EV -6.73%E -2.85%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.491%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.17%EV -8.39%E -2.95%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -2.64%E -0.765%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-20 00:25
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -4.84%E -1.64%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 00:25
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 00:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-20 00:20
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-20 00:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.36%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -16.75%E -5.68%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-20 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -18.16%E -6.26%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-20 00:15
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.12%E -3.03%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -18.16%E -6.26%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-20 00:15
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.37%EV -7.52%E -3.21%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -10.32%E -3.71%K -5.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-20 00:24
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.57%EV -9.03%E -3.20%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-20 00:20
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.57%EV -9.03%E -3.20%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-20 00:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.56%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -8.07%E -2.83%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-20 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.63%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.63%EV -19.57%E -6.87%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-20 00:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.63%EV -8.31%E -3.58%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.63%EV -19.57%E -6.87%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -11.29%E -4.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-20 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 00:25
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.45%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 00:25
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-20 00:20
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-20 00:10
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 00:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 00:15
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.10%E -3.96%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-20 00:20
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.82%EV -11.95%E -3.83%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-20 00:10
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.82%EV -11.95%E -3.83%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-20 00:24
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.10%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-20 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 00:10
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 00:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.08%E -4.92%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.68%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 00:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.18%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.14%0.4%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%0.7%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%0.7%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%0.7%2026-08-20 00:25
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.41%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.81%1.4%2026-08-20 00:25