Language:English
Atletico Goianiense v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense (Local)
Prediction 53.65%1.86fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%53.61%53.67%56.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.741.731.8262.50%57.49%57.80%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 19.53%5.12fair odd
EV +1.58%
Edge +0.304%
Kelly +0.376%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.43%19.58%19.50%21.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.604.555.2024.39%21.73%21.98%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.82%3.73fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -0.905%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.90%26.81%26.83%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.403.6431.75%29.53%29.41%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 53.65%; Ceará (Visit): 19.53%; Draw: 26.82%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.52%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV +1.58%E +0.304%K +0.376%G +0.006% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.66%EV -14.16%E -8.85%K -23.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV +1.58%E +0.304%K +0.376%G +0.006% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.11%EV -6.65%E -3.82%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 5.17I 19.34%NM 18.55%EV +0.995%E +0.192%K +0.239%G +0.002% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.34%EV -2.39%E -0.657%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -0.372%E -0.073%K -0.091%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -0.372%E -0.073%K -0.091%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.33%E -0.465%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 17:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -6.65%E -3.82%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.46%E -0.962%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-09 15:43 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.72%E -4.49%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 17:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.72%E -4.49%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 17:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.88%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.10%EV -4.67%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 17:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.57%EV -8.26%E -4.83%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -10.17%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.21%E -1.52%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.64%EV -7.72%E -4.49%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -7.21%E -1.52%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -14.19%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-09 15:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.61%EV -8.19%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 17:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -10.41%E -6.23%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.14%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -10.41%E -6.23%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.14%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -12.09%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.46%E -0.962%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -6.65%E -3.82%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -12.09%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%EV -8.26%E -4.83%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -12.09%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.43%E -1.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.43%E -1.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 14:48 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.98%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -15.41%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-09 15:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.20%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -15.41%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -3.43%E -1.91%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -17.95%E -4.27%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -17.95%E -4.27%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -5.04%E -2.85%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.52%EV -5.58%E -3.17%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -14.19%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.67%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -14.19%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.73%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.53%E -4.93%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.73%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.53%E -4.93%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 16:31 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |