Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Goianiense v Ceará

Início: 2026-09-10 00:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Ceará

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Goianiense (Local)

Previsão 53.65%1.86odd justa
EV -2.36%
Vantagem -1.30%
Kelly -2.88%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.52%53.61%53.67%56.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.601.741.731.8262.50%57.49%57.80%54.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ceará (Visitante)

Previsão 19.53%5.12odd justa
EV +1.58%
Vantagem +0.304%
Kelly +0.376%
Crescimento +0.006%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.43%19.58%19.50%21.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.104.604.555.2024.39%21.73%21.98%19.23%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.82%3.73odd justa
EV -2.39%
Vantagem -0.657%
Kelly -0.905%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.64

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.90%26.81%26.83%28.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.153.393.403.6431.75%29.53%29.41%27.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 53.65%; Ceará (Visitante): 19.53%; Empate: 26.82%. Para Ceará (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.12. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.20, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.58%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.52%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV +1.58%E +0.304%K +0.376%G +0.006%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.66%EV -14.16%E -8.85%K -23.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV +1.58%E +0.304%K +0.376%G +0.006%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.11%EV -6.65%E -3.82%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.55%EV +0.995%E +0.192%K +0.239%G +0.002%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.34%EV -2.39%E -0.657%K -0.905%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-09 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -0.372%E -0.073%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -0.372%E -0.073%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.33%E -0.465%K -0.581%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:05
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -6.65%E -3.82%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.46%E -0.962%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 15:43
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -9.33%E -5.52%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.72%E -4.49%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:05
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.72%E -4.49%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -4.28%E -0.873%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:05
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.88%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.10%EV -4.67%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.57%EV -8.26%E -4.83%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -10.17%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 17:10
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 16:55
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.23%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.21%E -1.52%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 15:50
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.64%EV -7.72%E -4.49%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -7.21%E -1.52%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -14.19%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:45
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.61%EV -8.19%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:05
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -10.41%E -6.23%K -15.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.14%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 15:50
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -10.41%E -6.23%K -15.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.14%E -2.20%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 15:50
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -12.09%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.46%E -0.962%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -6.65%E -3.82%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -12.09%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 15:50
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%EV -8.26%E -4.83%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -12.09%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 15:50
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.43%E -1.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 14:50
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.43%E -1.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.14%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 14:48
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -2.36%E -1.30%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -14.05%E -3.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:35
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.98%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -15.41%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 15:45
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.20%EV -8.80%E -5.17%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -15.41%E -3.56%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-09 15:30
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -3.43%E -1.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -17.95%E -4.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -17.95%E -4.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 14:50
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -5.04%E -2.85%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 15:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.52%EV -5.58%E -3.17%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -14.19%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 15:35
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.67%EV -6.11%E -3.49%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -14.19%E -4.43%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.73%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.53%E -4.93%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-09 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.73%EV -7.19%E -4.15%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -19.91%E -4.86%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -15.53%E -4.93%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-09 15:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-09-09 16:31
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-09-09 17:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-09-09 17:25