The School of Odds

Athletic Club (MG) v Operario PR

2026-07-07 23:00 — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (16 in analysis)

Option 1: Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

2.1845.87%Min
2.3542.61%Mean
2.3542.55%Median
2.5040.00%Max
37.29%2.682Min
40.24%2.485Max
38.59%2.591Mean
38.71%2.584Median
38.68%2.585IQM
38.54%2.595Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 38.68%

EV -3.29%Edge -1.32%Kelly -2.20%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Operario PR (Visit)

2.8834.72%Min
3.0732.55%Mean
3.1032.26%Median
3.2031.25%Max
29.00%3.448Min
31.13%3.212Max
29.97%3.337Mean
29.73%3.363Median
29.90%3.344IQM
29.97%3.337Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.20 under the IQM model: 29.90%

EV -4.31%Edge -1.35%Kelly -1.96%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

2.8035.71%Min
2.9234.23%Mean
2.9034.48%Median
3.1032.26%Max
29.89%3.346Min
32.82%3.047Max
31.44%3.181Mean
31.56%3.168Median
31.42%3.183IQM
31.49%3.175Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.10 under the IQM model: 31.42%

EV -2.61%Edge -0.843%Kelly -1.24%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

BookmakerAthletic Club (MG) (Local) ▼Operario PR (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.50I 40.00% NM 37.92%EV -3.29% E -1.32% K -2.20% G +0.000%3.19I 31.35% NM 29.72%EV -4.61% E -1.45% K -2.11% G +0.000%2.93I 34.13% NM 32.36%EV -7.95% E -2.71% K -4.12% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 00:05
DraftKings2.50I 40.00% NM 37.29%EV -3.29% E -1.32% K -2.20% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.56%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.15%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 00:04
LowVig.ag2.48I 40.32% NM 37.32%EV -4.07% E -1.64% K -2.75% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.86%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.82I 35.46% NM 32.82%EV -11.41% E -4.05% K -6.27% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 00:05
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32% NM 37.32%EV -4.07% E -1.64% K -2.75% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.86%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.82I 35.46% NM 32.82%EV -11.41% E -4.05% K -6.27% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 00:05
BetUS2.48I 40.32% NM 37.32%EV -4.07% E -1.64% K -2.75% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.86%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.82I 35.46% NM 32.82%EV -11.41% E -4.05% K -6.27% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 00:05
1xBet2.44I 40.98% NM 38.17%EV -5.61% E -2.30% K -3.90% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.04%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.93I 34.13% NM 31.79%EV -7.95% E -2.71% K -4.12% G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 00:05
Bovada2.44I 40.98% NM 37.83%EV -5.61% E -2.30% K -3.90% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.78%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.39%EV -10.47% E -3.67% K -5.66% G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-05 00:03
SportsBet2.40I 41.67% NM 38.85%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.57%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.57%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-01 02:19
Coolbet2.40I 41.67% NM 38.85%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.08%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.08%EV -2.61% E -0.843% K -1.24% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 14:04
Betway2.40I 41.67% NM 38.44%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.76%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.81%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 06:04
888sport2.40I 41.67% NM 38.00%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.42%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.57%EV -12.04% E -4.30% K -6.69% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-01 00:20
William Hill2.40I 41.67% NM 38.00%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.42%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.57%EV -12.04% E -4.30% K -6.69% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-01 00:19
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 38.00%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.42%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.57%EV -12.04% E -4.30% K -6.69% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-01 00:20
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67% NM 38.00%EV -7.16% E -2.98% K -5.12% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.42%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.57%EV -12.04% E -4.30% K -6.69% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-01 00:19
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02% NM 38.99%EV -7.93% E -3.33% K -5.75% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.00%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.00%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-04 23:05
NordicBet2.38I 42.02% NM 38.90%EV -7.93% E -3.33% K -5.75% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.39%EV -5.81% E -1.84% K -2.70% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 31.71%EV -8.27% E -2.83% K -4.31% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-01 05:20
Betsson2.38I 42.02% NM 38.90%EV -7.93% E -3.33% K -5.75% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 29.39%EV -5.81% E -1.84% K -2.70% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 31.71%EV -8.27% E -2.83% K -4.31% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-01 09:09
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55% NM 38.96%EV -9.10% E -3.87% K -6.74% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.52%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.52%EV -5.75% E -1.92% K -2.88% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-02 23:15
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55% NM 38.96%EV -9.10% E -3.87% K -6.74% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.52%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.52%EV -5.75% E -1.92% K -2.88% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-04 10:55
FanDuel2.35I 42.55% NM 38.76%EV -9.10% E -3.87% K -6.74% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 30.88%EV -11.79% E -4.00% K -6.05% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.36%EV -5.75% E -1.92% K -2.88% G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-01 02:19
BetMGM2.35I 42.55% NM 38.56%EV -9.10% E -3.87% K -6.74% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.20%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.24%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-01 22:39
PlayUp2.35I 42.55% NM 38.56%EV -9.10% E -3.87% K -6.74% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.20%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.24%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-03 23:05
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55% NM 38.53%EV -9.10% E -3.87% K -6.74% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.69%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 31.77%EV -10.47% E -3.67% K -5.66% G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-04 10:05
Unibet2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:40
Unibet (SE)2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:40
Unibet (NL)2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:39
Casumo2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:40
ATG (SE)2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:40
Svenska Spel2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:40
betPARX2.32I 43.10% NM 40.23%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.17%EV -4.31% E -1.35% K -1.96% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 30.60%EV -4.18% E -1.37% K -2.04% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-30 23:39
Codere (IT)2.32I 43.10% NM 38.84%EV -10.26% E -4.42% K -7.77% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.54%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 31.62%EV -10.47% E -3.67% K -5.66% G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-02 23:04
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48% NM 39.23%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 31.66%EV -10.47% E -3.67% K -5.66% G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-05 12:54
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48% NM 39.07%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 30.98%EV -13.28% E -4.58% K -6.99% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.95%EV -5.75% E -1.92% K -2.88% G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-01 02:19
Neds2.30I 43.48% NM 38.98%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.89%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.13%EV -9.52% E -3.31% K -5.07% G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-01 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48% NM 38.98%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.89%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.13%EV -9.52% E -3.31% K -5.07% G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-01 22:39
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48% NM 38.98%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.13%EV -13.88% E -4.82% K -7.38% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.89%EV -5.75% E -1.92% K -2.88% G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-05 13:25
Coral2.30I 43.48% NM 38.94%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.85%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.87I 34.84% NM 31.21%EV -9.84% E -3.43% K -5.26% G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-01 22:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48% NM 38.94%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.85%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.87I 34.84% NM 31.21%EV -9.84% E -3.43% K -5.26% G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-01 22:40
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48% NM 38.58%EV -11.03% E -4.80% K -8.48% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 30.60%EV -13.28% E -4.58% K -6.99% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 30.81%EV -9.52% E -3.31% K -5.07% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-05 01:05
BetRivers2.28I 43.86% NM 39.87%EV -11.80% E -5.18% K -9.22% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.32%EV -7.30% E -2.36% K -3.48% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 30.81%EV -7.32% E -2.48% K -3.76% G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-30 23:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84% NM 40.00%EV -13.74% E -6.16% K -11.17% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.24%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 30.76%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-30 23:39
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84% NM 40.00%EV -13.74% E -6.16% K -11.17% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.24%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 30.76%EV -8.90% E -3.07% K -4.68% G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-30 23:39
TABtouch2.20I 45.45% NM 40.24%EV -14.90% E -6.77% K -12.41% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 29.02%EV -8.80% E -2.89% K -4.29% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 30.74%EV -9.52% E -3.31% K -5.07% G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-30 23:39
LiveScore Bet2.18I 45.87% NM 40.14%EV -15.67% E -7.19% K -13.28% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.16%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 30.70%EV -10.47% E -3.67% K -5.66% G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-30 23:40
Virgin Bet2.18I 45.87% NM 40.14%EV -15.67% E -7.19% K -13.28% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.16%EV -10.29% E -3.43% K -5.15% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 30.70%EV -10.47% E -3.67% K -5.66% G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-30 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerAthletic Club (MG) (Local)Operario PR (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%3.20I 31.25%2.88I 34.72%7.3%2026-07-05 14:15
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%2.98I 33.56%2.88I 34.72%9.9%2026-07-05 10:20