The School of Odds

Athletic Club (MG) v Operario PR

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 23:00 UTC

Final: Athletic Club (MG) 0–1 Operario PR

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Prediction 40.07%2.50fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.84%40.02%40.18%43.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.332.322.4548%43%43%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Operario PR (Visit)

Prediction 28.04%3.57fair odd
EV +0.372%
Edge +0.104%
Kelly +0.144%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%28.11%27.85%31.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.853.193.203.5835%31%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.89%3.14fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.82%31.87%31.97%33.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.892.883.0036%35%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 40.08%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.87%EV +0.372%E +0.104%K +0.144%G +0.001%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.05%EV -7.19%E -2.47%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 22:50
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -15.86%E -7.55%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -1.87%E -0.535%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-07 22:50
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -3.27%E -0.949%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.15%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:35
1xBet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.35%EV -9.44%E -4.18%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -3.27%E -0.949%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.57%EV -5.59%E -1.89%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-07 22:50
LowVig.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 22:55
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 22:55
BetUS2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 22:55
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 22:50
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-07 22:35
Bovada2.31I 43.29%NM 39.93%EV -7.44%E -3.22%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.94%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-07 22:45
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:55
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.64%E -3.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.72%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-07 22:35
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.64%E -3.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.72%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-07 22:35
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-07 22:55
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-07 22:55
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-07 22:55
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-07 22:45
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-07 22:35
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 22:30
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-07 22:25
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-07 22:25
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-07 22:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-07 22:40
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -8.46%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-07 22:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -8.46%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-07 22:25
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.97%EV -17.29%E -5.86%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-07 22:35
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 38.08%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -18.69%E -6.45%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-07 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.87%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.90%EV -19.25%E -6.69%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.23%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-07 22:25
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 37.95%EV -6.64%E -2.85%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.03%EV -20.09%E -7.05%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.03%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-07 22:24
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.84%EV -7.04%E -3.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -20.09%E -7.05%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-07 22:25
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.84%EV -7.04%E -3.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -20.09%E -7.05%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-07 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%0.5%2026-07-07 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-07-07 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-07-07 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-07-07 22:55
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.36%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29%1.5%2026-07-07 22:55