La escuela de los momios

Athletic Club (MG) v Operario PR

Inicio: 2026-07-07 23:00 UTC

Final: Athletic Club (MG) 0–1 Operario PR

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Predicción 40.07%2.50momio equitativo
EV -1.83%
Ventaja -0.747%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.84%40.02%40.18%43.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.332.322.4547.62%42.98%43.10%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Operario PR (Visitante)

Predicción 28.04%3.57momio equitativo
EV +0.372%
Ventaja +0.104%
Kelly +0.144%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.82%28.11%27.85%31.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.853.193.203.5835.09%31.30%31.25%27.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.89%3.14momio equitativo
EV -4.32%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -2.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.82%31.87%31.97%33.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.892.883.0036.36%34.57%34.72%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 40.08%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.87%EV +0.372%E +0.104%K +0.144%G +0.001%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.05%EV -7.19%E -2.47%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 22:50
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -15.86%E -7.55%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -1.87%E -0.535%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-07 22:50
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -3.27%E -0.949%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.15%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 22:35
1xBet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.35%EV -9.44%E -4.18%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -3.27%E -0.949%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.57%EV -5.59%E -1.89%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-07 22:50
LowVig.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 22:55
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 22:55
BetUS2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 22:55
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-07 22:50
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-07 22:35
Bovada2.31I 43.29%NM 39.93%EV -7.44%E -3.22%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.94%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-07 22:45
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 22:55
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:55
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.64%E -3.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.72%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-07 22:35
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.64%E -3.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.72%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-07 22:35
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.08%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-07 22:55
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -7.48%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-07 22:55
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-07 22:55
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-07 22:45
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-07 22:35
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 22:30
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-07 22:25
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-07 22:25
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-07 22:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-07 22:40
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -8.46%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-07 22:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -11.85%E -5.39%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.09%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -8.46%E -2.95%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.83%E -0.747%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 22:25
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-07 22:25
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.97%EV -17.29%E -5.86%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.97%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-07 22:35
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 38.08%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -18.69%E -6.45%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-07 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.87%EV -5.84%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.90%EV -19.25%E -6.69%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.23%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-07 22:25
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 37.95%EV -6.64%E -2.85%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.03%EV -20.09%E -7.05%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.03%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-07 22:24
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.84%EV -7.04%E -3.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -20.09%E -7.05%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-07 22:25
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.84%EV -7.04%E -3.03%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -20.09%E -7.05%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-07 22:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%0.5%2026-07-07 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-07-07 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-07-07 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-07-07 22:55
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.36%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29%1.5%2026-07-07 22:55