The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

América Mineiro v Athletic Club (MG)

2026-08-16 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 42.05%2.38fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.73%42.10%42.11%44.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.202.202.2846.73%45.37%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 26.86%3.72fair odd
EV +3.67%
Edge +0.951%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.55%26.76%26.73%29.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.253.8633.33%30.27%30.77%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.09%3.22fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.06%31.14%31.16%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.953.1035.71%33.79%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: América Mineiro (Local): 42.05%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 26.86%; Draw: 31.09%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.67, with an expected value of -1.43%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -5.38%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.78%EV -1.43%E -0.390%K -0.537%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.18%EV -8.60%E -2.93%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 23:30
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -3.31%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.95%E -4.63%K -7.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 03:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -3.31%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.95%E -4.63%K -7.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 03:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -3.31%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.95%E -4.63%K -7.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 03:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -3.31%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.95%E -4.63%K -7.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 02:59
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.18%E -1.70%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 22:39
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.31%EV -8.32%E -3.82%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -7.36%E -2.47%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 22:39
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.31%EV -8.32%E -3.82%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -7.36%E -2.47%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 22:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 22:40
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.37%E -3.45%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 22:45
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.37%E -3.45%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 22:44
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.37%E -3.45%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-10 01:45
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.58%E -4.46%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -11.37%E -3.45%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-10 01:35
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:25
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:24
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -4.12%E -1.81%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.63%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -14.06%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-10 01:44
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -14.06%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.47%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-10 01:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -14.06%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.78%E -3.75%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-10 01:45
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -14.06%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.78%E -3.75%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-10 01:43
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -6.22%E -2.79%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -15.40%E -4.89%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -6.74%E -2.25%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 22:24
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -7.48%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -16.74%E -5.40%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-09 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.75%EV -8.32%E -3.82%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.13%EV -18.08%E -5.93%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.12%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 22:25
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.87%EV -8.74%E -4.03%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%EV -18.08%E -5.93%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 22:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 40.80%EV -10.00%E -4.67%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -19.43%E -6.48%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.10%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-09 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 40.80%EV -10.00%E -4.67%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -19.43%E -6.48%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.10%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-09 22:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 41.90%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%2.76I 36.23%NM 30.97%17.0%2026-08-09 22:45