Language:English
América Mineiro v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
América Mineiro (Local)
Prediction 39.42%2.54fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.707%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.13%39.41%39.40%41.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.322.5145.45%43.01%43.10%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 28.61%3.50fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -0.766%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%28.57%28.74%30.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.213.203.4334.48%31.20%31.25%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.97%3.13fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.41%32.02%31.86%33.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.872.873.0036.36%34.83%34.84%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América Mineiro (Local): 39.42%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 28.61%; Draw: 31.97%. For América Mineiro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.51, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.37%EV -1.07%E -0.425%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.08%EV -1.86%E -0.543%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.56%EV -8.24%E -2.87%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 21:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -2.72%E -0.800%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -11.12%E -4.00%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 21:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -2.72%E -0.800%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -11.12%E -4.00%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 21:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -2.72%E -0.800%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -11.12%E -4.00%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 21:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -3.43%E -1.40%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.61%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.43%EV -11.75%E -4.26%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.15%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 21:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 20:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 21:18 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.22%EV -7.77%E -3.32%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 21:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 21:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-16 21:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-16 21:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.05%EV -10.13%E -4.44%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.87%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-12 09:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-12 09:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -8.24%E -2.87%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 21:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -8.24%E -2.87%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -17.03%E -5.87%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-16 15:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.91%EV -12.10%E -5.43%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.18%EV -12.73%E -4.18%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.90%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -12.10%E -5.43%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -12.73%E -4.18%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-16 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-16 20:53 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-16 21:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-16 21:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.20% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.20% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.20% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 21:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.34% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.04% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.72% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.24% | 1.6% | 2026-08-16 21:25 |