Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

América Mineiro v Athletic Club (MG)

Início: 2026-08-16 21:30 UTC

Final: América Mineiro 1–3 Athletic Club (MG)

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

América Mineiro (Local)

Previsão 39.42%2.54odd justa
EV -1.07%
Vantagem -0.425%
Kelly -0.707%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.51

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.13%39.41%39.40%41.01%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.202.332.322.5145.45%43.01%43.10%39.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)

Previsão 28.61%3.50odd justa
EV -1.86%
Vantagem -0.543%
Kelly -0.766%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.34%28.57%28.74%30.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.213.203.4334.48%31.20%31.25%29.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.97%3.13odd justa
EV -4.08%
Vantagem -1.36%
Kelly -2.04%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.41%32.02%31.86%33.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.872.873.0036.36%34.83%34.84%33.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: América Mineiro (Local): 39.42%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante): 28.61%; Empate: 31.97%. Para América Mineiro (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.54. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.51, com valor esperado de -1.07%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.37%EV -1.07%E -0.425%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.08%EV -1.86%E -0.543%K -0.766%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.56%EV -8.24%E -2.87%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-16 21:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -2.72%E -0.800%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -11.12%E -4.00%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 21:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -2.72%E -0.800%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -11.12%E -4.00%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 21:04
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.34%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -2.72%E -0.800%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -11.12%E -4.00%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 21:04
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -3.43%E -1.40%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 21:20
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 21:19
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 21:24
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -5.40%E -2.25%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 21:25
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.61%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.43%EV -11.75%E -4.26%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 21:24
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -6.19%E -2.60%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 21:19
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.15%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 21:00
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 20:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 21:18
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 21:19
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 21:19
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -7.37%E -3.14%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 21:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.22%EV -7.77%E -3.32%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -9.87%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 21:20
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:10
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:10
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -8.56%E -3.69%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 21:10
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 21:24
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 21:20
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-16 21:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.34%E -4.06%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.01%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -12.07%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-16 21:15
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.05%EV -10.13%E -4.44%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.87%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 20:54
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.44%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 09:04
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 21:25
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 09:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 21:19
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 21:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -8.24%E -2.87%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 21:19
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.30%E -3.65%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -8.24%E -2.87%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 21:20
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -11.32%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -17.03%E -5.87%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 15:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.91%EV -12.10%E -5.43%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.18%EV -12.73%E -4.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.90%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 21:24
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.78%EV -12.10%E -5.43%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -12.73%E -4.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -5.58%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.88%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 20:53
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-16 21:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -13.29%E -6.04%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -14.17%E -4.72%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-16 21:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.20%0.4%2026-08-16 21:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.20%0.4%2026-08-16 21:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.20%0.4%2026-08-16 21:15
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.34%0.6%2026-08-16 21:25
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.72%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.24%1.6%2026-08-16 21:25