Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.25
assuming max odds 3.64
assuming max odds 3.38
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitoria (Local): 43.94%; Grêmio (Visit): 27.32%; Draw: 28.74%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.64, with an expected value of -0.543%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.65%EV -1.14%E -0.507%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.65%EV -1.14%E -0.507%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.77%EV -2.90%E -1.31%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV -2.46%E -0.688%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -4.58%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-07 22:42 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.14%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.13%EV -2.18%E -0.610%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.73%EV -2.86%E -0.846%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.14%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -3.00%E -0.846%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-07 19:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 22:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.37%EV -3.78%E -1.73%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -7.65%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.52%EV -4.30%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-07 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -5.10%E -2.36%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.56%EV -0.543%E -0.149%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -3.15%E -0.934%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -5.10%E -2.36%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.56%EV -0.543%E -0.149%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -3.15%E -0.934%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.64%E -0.454%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-07 22:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-07 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-07 22:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -11.20%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.19%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.19%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.19%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-07 22:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.64%E -0.454%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -13.93%E -4.42%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -13.93%E -4.42%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-07 22:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.63%EV -8.17%E -3.91%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -4.01%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-07 22:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.20%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-07 22:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-07 22:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 44.26%EV -10.81%E -5.32%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-07 22:33 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -12.13%E -6.06%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-07 22:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -12.13%E -6.06%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-07 22:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32% | 0.3% | 2026-09-07 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 0.8% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 0.8% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 0.8% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.16% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70% | 2.0% | 2026-09-07 22:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41% | 2.1% | 2026-09-07 22:30 |