Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Vitoria v Grêmio

Inicio: 2026-09-07 23:00 UTC

Final: Vitoria 1–0 Grêmio

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Vitoria (Local)

Predicción 43.94%2.28momio equitativo
EV -1.14%
Ventaja -0.507%
Kelly -0.913%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.19%43.90%43.97%44.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.132.152.2550.00%46.90%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Grêmio (Visitante)

Predicción 27.32%3.66momio equitativo
EV -0.543%
Ventaja -0.149%
Kelly -0.206%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.05%27.26%27.32%28.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.383.403.6431.75%29.54%29.41%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.74%3.48momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -0.846%
Kelly -1.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.78%28.83%28.72%30.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.193.203.3833.33%31.37%31.25%29.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Vitoria (Local): 43.94%; Grêmio (Visitante): 27.32%; Empate: 28.74%. Para Grêmio (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.66. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.64, con un valor esperado de -0.543%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.65%EV -1.14%E -0.507%K -0.913%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 22:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.65%EV -1.14%E -0.507%K -0.913%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 22:29
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.77%EV -2.90%E -1.31%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV -2.46%E -0.688%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -4.58%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-07 22:42
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.14%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.13%EV -2.18%E -0.610%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.73%EV -2.86%E -0.846%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-07 22:55
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.14%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -3.00%E -0.846%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 19:19
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 22:55
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 22:29
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 22:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 22:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 22:29
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 22:30
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -3.34%E -1.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 22:29
GTbets🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.37%EV -3.78%E -1.73%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -7.65%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.52%EV -4.30%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 21:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -5.10%E -2.36%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.56%EV -0.543%E -0.149%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -3.15%E -0.934%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-07 22:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -5.10%E -2.36%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.56%EV -0.543%E -0.149%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -3.15%E -0.934%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-07 22:14
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.64%E -0.454%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-07 22:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 22:15
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 22:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 22:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 22:14
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-07 22:53
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 22:35
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 22:35
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 22:35
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 22:35
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 22:55
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 22:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 22:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 22:55
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -5.54%E -2.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -11.20%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 22:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.19%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-07 22:29
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.19%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-07 22:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.19%EV -5.97%E -2.79%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -12.34%E -4.05%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-07 22:29
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 22:20
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 22:55
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.64%E -0.454%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 22:35
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 22:14
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 22:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.16%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 22:14
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 22:35
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 22:35
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 22:14
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 22:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -13.93%E -4.42%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-07 22:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -7.73%E -3.68%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -13.93%E -4.42%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-07 22:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.63%EV -8.17%E -3.91%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -4.01%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 22:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 22:14
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 22:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.20%E -3.45%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -6.60%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 22:14
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-07 22:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-07 22:45
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.93%E -4.84%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.26%EV -10.81%E -5.32%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -9.47%E -3.01%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-07 22:33
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -12.13%E -6.06%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 22:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -12.13%E -6.06%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -12.56%E -3.93%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -10.91%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-07 22:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%0.3%2026-09-07 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-09-07 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-09-07 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-09-07 22:55
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-09-07 22:55
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-09-07 22:30