Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.06
assuming max odds 4.23
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 47.68%; Botafogo (Visit): 24.47%; Draw: 27.85%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.52%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.81%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.85%EV +3.52%E +0.831%K +1.09%G +0.038% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.34%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.52%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.81%EV -2.81%E -0.805%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.70%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -10.84%E -5.80%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.37%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.34%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.31%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -3.34%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -7.54%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.58%EV -2.26%E -1.10%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -1.78%E -0.864%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -1.78%E -0.864%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.82%EV -6.07%E -3.08%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -6.07%E -3.08%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.40%EV -6.76%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.42%EV -8.94%E -2.73%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 16:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -10.84%E -5.80%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-04 23:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.94%EV -3.21%E -1.58%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.21%EV -7.50%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.94%EV -3.21%E -1.58%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.21%EV -7.50%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 20:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 23:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 23:37 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.16%EV -6.07%E -3.08%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.12%EV -6.55%E -3.34%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.03%EV -11.31%E -6.08%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.95%EV -11.31%E -6.08%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.44%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.61%EV -10.05%E -3.11%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -9.41%E -4.95%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.15%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.15%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -8.45%E -4.40%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -13.13%E -3.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -8.45%E -4.40%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -13.13%E -3.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 23:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.89%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.62%EV -22.03%E -7.87%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-04-04 23:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.63%EV -12.27%E -6.67%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -15.57%E -4.51%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06% | 0.4% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06% | 0.4% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 23:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.10% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.84% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06% | 1.8% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |