L’École des cotes

Vasco da Gama v Botafogo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-05 00:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prévision 47.68%2.10cote équitable
EV -1.78%
Avantage -0.864%
Kelly -1.68%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.06

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.89%47.73%47.74%49.16%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.841.961.962.0654.35%51.04%51.15%48.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Botafogo (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.47%4.09cote équitable
EV +3.52%
Avantage +0.831%
Kelly +1.09%
Croissance +0.038%

avec la cote maximale 4.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.69%24.38%24.46%25.40%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.453.773.754.2328.99%26.50%26.67%23.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.85%3.59cote équitable
EV -2.53%
Avantage -0.723%
Kelly -1.01%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.78%27.90%27.80%30.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.333.353.5035.71%30.02%29.85%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 48.81%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.85%EV +3.52%E +0.831%K +1.09%G +0.038%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.34%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 23:54
1xBet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.52%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.81%EV -2.81%E -0.805%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 23:49
BetAnything1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:49
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:35
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.70%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV +0.334%E +0.082%K +0.108%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 23:34
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:54
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -10.84%E -5.80%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:35
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.37%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -3.34%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:34
Marathon Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.31%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -3.34%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -7.54%E -2.27%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 23:34
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.58%EV -2.26%E -1.10%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 23:00
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 23:49
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 23:49
ATG (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -1.78%E -0.864%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 23:44
Svenska Spel2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -1.78%E -0.864%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 23:45
Codere (IT)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.82%EV -6.07%E -3.08%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 23:35
GTbets1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -6.07%E -3.08%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.40%EV -6.76%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.42%EV -8.94%E -2.73%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 23:30
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 16:45
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 23:34
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:34
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:35
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.37%EV -10.84%E -5.80%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 23:39
LowVig.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 46.94%EV -3.21%E -1.58%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.21%EV -7.50%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 20:54
BetOnline.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 46.94%EV -3.21%E -1.58%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.21%EV -7.50%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 20:54
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 23:29
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 23:37
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:30
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 23:45
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 23:45
Unibet (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 23:45
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 23:44
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 23:44
Unibet (NL)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 23:44
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 23:44
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -4.64%E -2.32%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 23:35
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:39
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:39
Bet Right1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.59%E -2.82%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:35
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.16%EV -6.07%E -3.08%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 23:45
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 23:35
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 23:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.12%EV -6.55%E -3.34%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -6.71%E -2.00%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 23:45
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -7.02%E -3.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 23:45
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.03%EV -11.31%E -6.08%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 23:35
Betclic (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 47.95%EV -11.31%E -6.08%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.44%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.61%EV -10.05%E -3.11%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 23:34
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -9.41%E -4.95%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 23:35
PMU (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.15%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 23:45
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 47.15%EV -7.98%E -4.13%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 23:45
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-04 23:49
LiveScore Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -8.45%E -4.40%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -13.13%E -3.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 23:45
Virgin Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -8.45%E -4.40%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -13.13%E -3.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 23:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.89%EV -8.93%E -4.68%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.62%EV -22.03%E -7.87%K -12.24%G +0.000%16.6%2026-04-04 23:49
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.63%EV -12.27%E -6.67%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -15.57%E -4.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 23:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-04-04 23:54
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-04-04 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-04-04 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-04-04 23:35
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-04-04 23:40
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.84%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-04-04 23:55