Language:English
Santos v Atletico Paranaense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Santos (Local)
Prediction 45.00%2.22fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.66%44.94%45.07%46.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.072.082.1752.08%48.20%48.08%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Paranaense (Visit)
Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV +0.267%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.094%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.96%26.17%26.06%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.513.503.8430.77%28.49%28.57%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%28.89%28.87%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.253.3533.33%31.24%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos (Local): 45.00%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 26.11%; Draw: 28.89%. For Atletico Paranaense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.267%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.37%EV -4.16%E -1.95%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.17%EV +0.267%E +0.070%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.34%EV -4.16%E -1.95%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV +0.006%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.44%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 21:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.34%EV -4.16%E -1.95%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV +0.006%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.44%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 21:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.34%EV -4.16%E -1.95%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV +0.006%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.44%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 21:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.06%EV -3.26%E -1.52%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -0.777%E -0.204%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.45%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.08%E -0.555%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 21:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.39%E -0.916%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-09 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -10.01%E -5.00%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -3.39%E -0.916%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.23%EV -3.26%E -1.52%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.69%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 21:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.25%EV -6.41%E -3.08%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.69%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 17:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.26%EV -7.31%E -3.55%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -4.95%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 21:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.41%E -3.08%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 17:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 18:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 21:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 17:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.81%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.48%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-07 06:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.27%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.06%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.27%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.06%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 12:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -6.41%E -3.08%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 21:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -6.41%E -3.08%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.50%EV -13.61%E -7.09%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-09 21:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -6.41%E -3.08%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.01%E -5.00%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 19:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.01%E -5.00%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.01%E -5.00%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.45%EV -10.91%E -5.51%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -9.85%E -3.16%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-09 21:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -10.01%E -5.00%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -9.92%E -2.87%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 17:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -4.61%E -2.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -4.61%E -2.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -4.61%E -2.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -4.61%E -2.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -4.61%E -2.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -4.61%E -2.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -10.01%E -5.00%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-09 16:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -12.53%E -3.74%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 20:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.05%EV -10.91%E -5.51%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.53%E -3.74%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-09 20:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.51%E -2.62%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -6.41%E -3.08%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -7.76%E -3.79%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-09 21:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.77%EV -6.86%E -3.31%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.69%EV -7.31%E -3.55%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-09 20:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.79%EV -9.11%E -4.51%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.79%EV -9.11%E -4.51%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.79%EV -9.11%E -4.51%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.84% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.84% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.84% | 0.5% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.83% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.84% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.76% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.80% | 2.1% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
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