The School of Odds

Santos v Atletico Paranaense

2026-08-09 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Santos (Local)

Prediction 39.58%2.53fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%39.57%39.40%40.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.352.4546.51%43.03%42.55%40.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 31.07%3.22fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%31.02%31.14%31.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.962.953.1036.36%33.83%33.90%32.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.34%3.41fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.961%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.41%29.46%30.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.103.3034.48%32.13%32.26%30.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.16%EV -3.02%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.95%EV -3.67%E -1.18%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.89%EV -5.81%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-27 16:45
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.17%E -0.961%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.20%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -6.16%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -8.45%E -2.71%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 16:25
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -7.40%E -2.48%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 20:30
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.27%EV -7.40%E -2.48%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 20:30
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.88%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.97%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:50
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.88%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.97%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:50
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.88%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.97%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:50
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.88%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.97%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:50
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -6.98%E -2.97%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -3.67%E -1.18%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -3.17%E -0.961%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 16:45
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -6.98%E -2.97%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.22%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -3.17%E -0.961%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 16:50
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -6.98%E -2.97%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.78%E -2.26%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -3.17%E -0.961%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 16:49
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.98%E -2.97%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.33%E -2.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -4.64%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 16:49
Codere (IT)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.96%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.67%E -1.18%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 14:50
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.96%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -10.51%E -3.65%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.04%E -2.92%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 16:49
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -12.92%E -5.87%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -14.55%E -5.29%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -11.97%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-27 16:49
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -14.90%E -6.93%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -9.88%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -11.97%E -3.99%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -14.90%E -6.93%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -9.88%E -3.41%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -14.91%E -5.14%K -7.85%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-27 14:50
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.27%EV -14.90%E -6.93%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.38%EV -11.44%E -4.01%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.35%EV -13.44%E -4.56%K -6.89%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-27 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10