Language:English
Remo v Palmeiras
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Remo (Local)
Prediction 23.96%4.17fair odd
EV +7.81%
Edge +1.74%
Kelly +2.23%
Growth +0.174%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.56%23.73%24.02%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.084.104.5027.78%24.49%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Palmeiras (Visit)
Prediction 48.64%2.06fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.63%48.80%48.57%51.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.832.0057.80%54.09%54.64%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV +0.032%
Edge +0.009%
Kelly +0.012%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.47%27.40%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.393.403.6533.33%29.54%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Remo (Local): 23.96%; Palmeiras (Visit): 48.64%; Draw: 27.41%. For Remo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV +7.81%E +1.74%K +2.23%G +0.174% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 20:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV +7.81%E +1.74%K +2.23%G +0.174% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -12.46%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 20:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV +4.22%E +0.970%K +1.26%G +0.053% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -8.08%E -4.27%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV +0.032%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV +4.22%E +0.970%K +1.26%G +0.053% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -8.08%E -4.27%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV +0.032%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV +3.74%E +0.864%K +1.12%G +0.042% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -12.46%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 20:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV +1.82%E +0.429%K +0.561%G +0.010% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%EV -10.51%E -5.71%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV +1.82%E +0.429%K +0.561%G +0.010% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -11.00%E -6.01%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV +1.82%E +0.429%K +0.561%G +0.010% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -11.00%E -6.01%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV +1.82%E +0.429%K +0.561%G +0.010% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -11.00%E -6.01%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV +1.82%E +0.429%K +0.561%G +0.010% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -11.00%E -6.01%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV +1.82%E +0.429%K +0.561%G +0.010% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -11.00%E -6.01%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV +0.626%E +0.149%K +0.196%G +0.001% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.14%EV -11.97%E -6.61%K -14.78%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -5.45%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 20:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV +0.626%E +0.149%K +0.196%G +0.001% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -12.46%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -15.04%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 20:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -1.77%E -0.432%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -12.46%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -5.45%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-10 20:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -1.77%E -0.432%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -13.43%E -7.54%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 20:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -1.77%E -0.432%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -13.43%E -7.54%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -1.77%E -0.432%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.16%EV -14.40%E -8.18%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -8.19%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -1.77%E -0.432%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.16%EV -14.40%E -8.18%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -8.19%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -4.17%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.65%EV -5.65%E -2.91%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 19:58 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.17%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 20:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -4.17%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -15.86%E -9.17%K -21.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -17.78%E -5.93%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-05-10 20:13 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.16%E -2.65%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 19:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.16%E -2.65%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.08%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 19:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.16%E -2.65%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 19:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 19:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.96%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.16%E -2.65%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 19:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.63%EV -3.70%E -1.87%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 20:18 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.25%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 49.44%EV -15.37%E -8.84%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.31%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.09%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.85%EV -12.46%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-10 19:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -2.73%E -1.36%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.82%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 20:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-05-10 20:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.56% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 20:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.5% | 2026-05-10 20:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.5% | 2026-05-10 20:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.16% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 20:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 23.66% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 47.17% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 29.18% | 26.9% | 2026-05-10 20:25 |