The School of OddsMirassol v Grêmio
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Mirassol (Local)
Prediction 48.89%2.05fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.03%48.82%48.88%50.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.901.911.9856%53%52%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Grêmio (Visit)
Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.63%22.94%22.91%25.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.704.084.104.4627%24%24%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV +0.171%
Edge +0.048%
Kelly +0.067%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.81%28.23%28.21%29.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.313.5533%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -5.15%E -2.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 21.63%EV +2.10%E +0.470%K +0.606%G +0.013% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.63%EV -4.91%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-17 22:35 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.32%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV +0.171%E +0.048%K +0.067%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-17 22:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.32%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV +0.171%E +0.048%K +0.067%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-17 22:49 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-17 19:44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-17 19:44 |
| BetAnything | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-17 19:44 |
| SportsBet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79%EV -4.17%E -2.13%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-17 22:25 |
| betPARX | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| 1xBet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.00%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.72%EV -2.25%E -0.527%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.28%EV -3.21%E -0.937%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Coolbet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-17 22:34 |
| TABtouch | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%EV -10.53%E -5.75%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Bovada | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| BetMGM | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-17 17:24 |
| BetUS | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.38%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-17 22:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-17 22:23 |
| Grosvenor | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Casumo | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Unibet | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.45%EV -10.53%E -5.75%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| GTbets | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.48%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.13%EV -5.00%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -4.63%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-17 20:09 |
| DraftKings | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-17 17:24 |
| LeoVegas | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Fanatics | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -11.51%E -6.36%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-17 22:49 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -11.51%E -6.36%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-17 22:49 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.39%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.04%EV -5.15%E -2.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -7.29%E -1.80%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.94%EV -9.14%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-17 22:53 |
| Bet Victor | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| betano_uk | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-17 22:53 |
| Everygame | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Bet Right | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -6.13%E -3.19%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| Betway | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| betfred_uk | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 22:29 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-17 22:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-17 22:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| BetRivers | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.58%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 22:34 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.43%EV -11.02%E -6.05%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 22.89%EV -10.04%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-17 22:34 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-17 22:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-17 22:55 |
| 888sport | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| William Hill | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-17 17:24 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -15.35%E -5.12%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-07-17 22:24 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.33%EV -10.04%E -5.46%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.58%EV -11.87%E -3.08%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-17 17:24 |
| PlayUp | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.16%E -3.77%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Betsson | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| NordicBet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.13%E -3.19%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -2.65%E -0.768%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.01%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-17 17:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.15% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62% | 1.3% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62% | 1.3% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Matchbook | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62% | 1.3% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Smarkets | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.66% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.49% | 1.7% | 2026-07-17 22:54 |
| Kalshi | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-07-17 22:50 |