Mirassol v Grêmio

2026-07-17 23:00 — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (11 in analysis)

Option 1: Mirassol (Local)

Odds

1.8454.35%Min

1.9850.57%Mean

2.0050.00%Median

2.0349.26%Max

Consensus probabilities

45.18%2.213Min

47.65%2.099Max

46.81%2.136Mean

47.01%2.127Median

46.96%2.130IQM

46.92%2.131Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.03 under the IQM model: 46.96%

EV -4.68%Edge -2.30%Kelly -4.54%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Grêmio (Visit)

Odds

3.2530.77%Min

3.5827.93%Mean

3.6027.78%Median

4.0324.81%Max

Consensus probabilities

23.65%4.229Min

26.58%3.762Max

24.74%4.042Mean

24.63%4.060Median

24.64%4.059IQM

24.64%4.058Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.03 under the IQM model: 24.64%

EV -0.705%Edge -0.175%Kelly -0.233%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.0033.33%Min

3.2131.16%Mean

3.2031.25%Median

3.4029.41%Max

Consensus probabilities

27.74%3.604Min

29.32%3.411Max

28.45%3.514Mean

28.36%3.526Median

28.40%3.521IQM

28.44%3.516Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.40 under the IQM model: 28.40%

EV -3.43%Edge -1.01%Kelly -1.43%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Mirassol (Local) ▼	Grêmio (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM	2.15I 46.51% NM 43.79%EV +0.958% E +0.446% K +0.833% G +0.008%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.69%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.53%EV -6.27% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-01 02:50
1xBet	2.03I 49.26% NM 47.32%EV -4.68% E -2.30% K -4.54% G +0.000%	3.96I 25.25% NM 24.26%EV -2.43% E -0.614% K -0.821% G +0.000%	3.38I 29.59% NM 28.42%EV -4.00% E -1.18% K -1.68% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-03 05:05
SportsBet	2.02I 49.50% NM 47.04%EV -5.15% E -2.55% K -5.05% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 25.01%EV -6.37% E -1.68% K -2.28% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.95%EV -3.43% E -1.01% K -1.43% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 03:20
Pinnacle	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.65%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	4.03I 24.81% NM 23.65%EV -0.705% E -0.175% K -0.233% G +0.000%	3.32I 30.12% NM 28.70%EV -5.70% E -1.72% K -2.46% G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-03 02:35
Bovada	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.54%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 24.07%EV -2.68% E -0.678% K -0.907% G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85% NM 28.38%EV -4.85% E -1.45% K -2.06% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 02:25
FanDuel	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.29%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 24.89%EV -6.37% E -1.68% K -2.28% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 27.82%EV -3.43% E -1.01% K -1.43% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-03 03:20
Fanatics	2.00I 50.00% NM 46.90%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 24.68%EV -6.37% E -1.68% K -2.28% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.42%EV -6.27% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-04 00:30
888sport (SE)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.44%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.24%EV -11.30% E -3.14% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.32%EV -11.95% E -3.85% K -5.69% G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-07-03 21:20
888sport	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.44%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.24%EV -11.30% E -3.14% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.32%EV -11.95% E -3.85% K -5.69% G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-07-03 21:15
Mr Green (SE)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.44%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.24%EV -11.30% E -3.14% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.32%EV -11.95% E -3.85% K -5.69% G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-07-03 21:15
William Hill	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.44%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.24%EV -11.30% E -3.14% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 29.32%EV -11.95% E -3.85% K -5.69% G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-07-03 21:15
LiveScore Bet	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:20
Grosvenor	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:30
PMU (FR)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:29
Unibet (NL)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:30
Virgin Bet	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:30
LeoVegas (SE)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:29
Casumo	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:29
Unibet (SE)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:29
TABtouch	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:29
Svenska Spel	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:29
ATG (SE)	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:30
Unibet	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 03:39
BetRivers	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 06:40
betPARX	2.00I 50.00% NM 45.18%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.58%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.24%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-06-25 08:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.00I 50.00% NM 41.57%EV -6.09% E -3.04% K -6.09% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 26.82%EV -23.62% E -7.62% K -11.25% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 31.61%EV -25.30% E -9.62% K -15.52% G +0.000%	20.3%	2026-06-24 04:10
Codere (IT)	1.99I 50.25% NM 46.51%EV -6.55% E -3.29% K -6.62% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 25.01%EV -8.84% E -2.39% K -3.27% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.48%EV -7.69% E -2.37% K -3.42% G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-03 08:30
Bet Right	1.98I 50.51% NM 46.99%EV -7.02% E -3.55% K -7.17% G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.81%EV -7.60% E -2.03% K -2.77% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.20%EV -6.27% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-03 03:19
LeoVegas	1.98I 50.51% NM 46.47%EV -7.02% E -3.55% K -7.17% G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40% NM 25.21%EV -10.07% E -2.76% K -3.80% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.31%EV -7.69% E -2.37% K -3.42% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-03 21:20
Marathon Bet	1.97I 50.76% NM 47.31%EV -7.49% E -3.80% K -7.73% G +0.000%	3.84I 26.04% NM 24.27%EV -5.39% E -1.40% K -1.90% G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49% NM 28.42%EV -6.84% E -2.08% K -3.00% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-03 05:05
Bet Victor	1.95I 51.28% NM 47.53%EV -8.43% E -4.32% K -8.88% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 24.39%EV -6.37% E -1.68% K -2.28% G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30% NM 28.08%EV -6.27% E -1.90% K -2.73% G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-03 21:05
DraftKings	1.95I 51.28% NM 47.26%EV -8.43% E -4.32% K -8.88% G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97% NM 23.94%EV -5.14% E -1.34% K -1.80% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.80%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-03 02:24
Tipico (DE)	1.95I 51.28% NM 47.11%EV -8.43% E -4.32% K -8.88% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 24.18%EV -6.37% E -1.68% K -2.28% G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25% NM 28.71%EV -9.11% E -2.85% K -4.14% G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-05 14:15
BoyleSports	1.95I 51.28% NM 46.69%EV -8.43% E -4.32% K -8.88% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.29%EV -11.30% E -3.14% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 28.02%EV -7.69% E -2.37% K -3.42% G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-07-03 08:30
Paddy Power	1.91I 52.36% NM 47.21%EV -10.31% E -5.40% K -11.33% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.05%EV -11.30% E -3.14% K -4.35% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 27.74%EV -7.69% E -2.37% K -3.42% G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-07-03 03:19
Sky Bet	1.91I 52.36% NM 45.49%EV -10.31% E -5.40% K -11.33% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 25.55%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.96%EV -14.79% E -4.93% K -7.39% G +0.000%	15.1%	2026-07-03 03:19
Winamax (DE)	1.88I 53.19% NM 46.31%EV -11.72% E -6.23% K -13.32% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 25.61%EV -16.23% E -4.77% K -6.76% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 28.08%EV -11.95% E -3.85% K -5.69% G +0.000%	14.9%	2026-07-03 08:30
Unibet (FR)	1.86I 53.76% NM 46.48%EV -12.66% E -6.81% K -14.72% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 24.70%EV -13.76% E -3.93% K -5.51% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.82%EV -14.79% E -4.93% K -7.39% G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-03 08:30
Betclic (FR)	1.85I 54.05% NM 46.60%EV -13.13% E -7.10% K -15.45% G +0.000%	3.47I 28.82% NM 24.85%EV -14.50% E -4.18% K -5.87% G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11% NM 28.55%EV -14.22% E -4.71% K -7.04% G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-07-03 08:28
Winamax (FR)	1.84I 54.35% NM 45.88%EV -13.60% E -7.39% K -16.19% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 25.98%EV -19.92% E -6.13% K -8.86% G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33% NM 28.14%EV -14.79% E -4.93% K -7.39% G +0.000%	18.5%	2026-07-03 08:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Mirassol (Local)	Grêmio (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.00I 50.00%	4.00I 25.00%	3.25I 30.77%	5.8%	2026-07-05 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.00I 50.00%	4.00I 25.00%	3.25I 30.77%	5.8%	2026-07-05 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.00I 50.00%	4.00I 25.00%	3.25I 30.77%	5.8%	2026-07-05 13:45
Smarkets	1.97I 50.76%	3.95I 25.32%	3.15I 31.75%	7.8%	2026-07-05 10:35