Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mirassol v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 23:00 UTC

Final: Mirassol 2–1 Grêmio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mirassol (Local)

Prediction 48.89%2.05fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.03%48.82%48.88%50.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.901.911.9855.56%52.67%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.63%22.94%22.91%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.084.104.4627.03%24.48%24.39%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV +0.171%
Edge +0.048%
Kelly +0.067%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.81%28.23%28.21%29.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.313.5533.33%30.18%30.21%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mirassol (Local): 48.89%; Grêmio (Visit): 22.89%; Draw: 28.22%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -5.15%E -2.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.63%EV +2.10%E +0.470%K +0.606%G +0.013%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.63%EV -4.91%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.32%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV +0.171%E +0.048%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-17 22:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.32%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV +0.171%E +0.048%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-17 22:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 19:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 19:44
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 19:44
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79%EV -4.17%E -2.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 22:25
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.00%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.72%EV -2.25%E -0.527%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.28%EV -3.21%E -0.937%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 22:34
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%EV -10.53%E -5.75%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 22:54
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 22:54
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 22:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 17:24
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.38%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 22:50
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 22:23
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.45%EV -10.53%E -5.75%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 22:24
GTbets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.48%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.13%EV -5.00%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -4.63%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 20:09
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 22:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 17:24
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 22:54
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 22:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -11.51%E -6.36%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 22:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -11.51%E -6.36%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 22:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.39%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 22:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.04%EV -5.15%E -2.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -7.29%E -1.80%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.94%EV -9.14%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 22:53
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 22:54
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 22:53
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -6.13%E -3.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 22:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 22:24
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 22:54
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 22:29
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:49
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:24
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.58%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 22:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.43%EV -11.02%E -6.05%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.89%EV -10.04%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-17 22:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-17 22:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:55
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:54
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-17 17:24
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -15.35%E -5.12%K -7.67%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-17 22:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.33%EV -10.04%E -5.46%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.58%EV -11.87%E -3.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 17:24
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.16%E -3.77%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 22:54
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.13%E -3.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -2.65%E -0.768%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.01%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-17 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.66%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.49%1.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-07-17 22:50

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.