L’École des cotes

Mirassol v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-17 23:00 UTC

Score final : Mirassol 2–1 Grêmio

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Mirassol (Local)

Prévision 48.89%2.05cote équitable
EV -3.20%
Avantage -1.61%
Kelly -3.26%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.98

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.03%48.82%48.88%50.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.801.901.911.9855.56%52.67%52.36%50.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.89%4.37cote équitable
EV +2.10%
Avantage +0.470%
Kelly +0.606%
Croissance +0.013%

avec la cote maximale 4.46

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.63%22.94%22.91%25.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.704.084.104.4627.03%24.48%24.39%22.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.22%3.54cote équitable
EV +0.171%
Avantage +0.048%
Kelly +0.067%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.81%28.23%28.21%29.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.313.313.5533.33%30.18%30.21%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%EV -5.15%E -2.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.63%EV +2.10%E +0.470%K +0.606%G +0.013%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.63%EV -4.91%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 22:35
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 50.32%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV +0.171%E +0.048%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-17 22:49
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.32%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV +0.171%E +0.048%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-17 22:49
LowVig.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 19:44
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 19:44
BetAnything1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -0.421%E -0.097%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.71%EV -6.32%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 19:44
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79%EV -4.17%E -2.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 22:25
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 49.00%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.72%EV -2.25%E -0.527%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.28%EV -3.21%E -0.937%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Coolbet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 22:34
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%EV -10.53%E -5.75%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 22:54
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 22:54
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 22:24
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 17:24
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 49.38%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 22:50
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 22:23
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet (NL)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 22:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.45%EV -10.53%E -5.75%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 22:24
GTbets1.98I 50.51%NM 48.48%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.13%EV -5.00%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -4.63%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 20:09
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 22:54
Codere (IT)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 17:24
LeoVegas1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 22:54
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 22:54
LiveScore Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -11.51%E -6.36%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 22:49
Virgin Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -11.51%E -6.36%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 22:49
PMU (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.39%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 22:54
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.04%EV -5.15%E -2.66%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.01%EV -7.29%E -1.80%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.94%EV -9.14%E -2.84%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 22:53
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 22:54
betano_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 22:53
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -6.13%E -3.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 22:24
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 22:24
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 22:54
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 22:29
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:49
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -8.57%E -4.59%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.53%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:24
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.64%E -2.92%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.58%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 22:34
Betclic (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.43%EV -11.02%E -6.05%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.89%EV -10.04%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-17 22:34
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-17 22:29
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:55
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:54
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:54
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -6.62%E -3.47%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 22:54
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-17 17:24
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -15.35%E -5.12%K -7.67%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-17 22:24
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.33%EV -10.04%E -5.46%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.58%EV -11.87%E -3.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 17:24
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -4.66%E -2.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -14.16%E -3.77%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.88%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -3.20%E -1.61%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 22:54
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.13%E -3.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -2.65%E -0.768%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.01%EV -12.00%E -6.66%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -15.30%E -4.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.69%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-17 17:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.66%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.49%1.7%2026-07-17 22:54
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-07-17 22:50