Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Vitoria

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 52.01%1.92fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.18%52.05%52.01%54.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.771.801.8761.73%56.58%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitoria (Visit)

Prediction 20.72%4.83fair odd
EV +6.51%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 5.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.89%20.72%20.79%22.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.544.555.1425.00%22.00%21.98%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.27%3.67fair odd
EV +0.894%
Edge +0.242%
Kelly +0.331%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%27.23%27.20%29.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.423.433.7034.72%29.27%29.15%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 52.01%; Vitoria (Visit): 20.72%; Draw: 27.27%. For Vitoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.83. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.36%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.89%EV +6.51%E +1.27%K +1.57%G +0.102%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-19 21:50
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.36%EV +3.61%E +0.722%K +0.903%G +0.033%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.74%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:54
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -7.42%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV +1.54%E +0.314%K +0.394%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.894%E +0.242%K +0.331%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -7.42%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV +1.54%E +0.314%K +0.394%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.894%E +0.242%K +0.331%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-19 21:55
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -0.534%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-19 21:54
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -7.94%E -4.49%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -0.534%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 21:53
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 21:44
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.18%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 21:52
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.11%EV -1.98%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.90%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 21:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.14%EV -9.50%E -5.46%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.469%E -0.129%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 21:54
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.43%EV -10.54%E -6.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -0.469%E -0.129%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 21:35
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -3.20%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -3.20%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.13%EV -5.86%E -3.24%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.27%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -6.90%E -3.86%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.83%E -2.32%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 21:54
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -12.62%E -7.51%K -18.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-19 21:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.29%EV -13.66%E -8.23%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-19 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.29%EV -13.66%E -8.23%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.96%EV -2.74%E -1.47%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -6.74%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-19 10:00
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:44
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:53
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 21:49
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-19 21:54
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 21:45
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 21:45
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -11.06%E -6.47%K -15.58%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.20%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-19 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 12:29
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 21:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -10.27%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -15.47%E -4.99%K -7.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-19 21:54
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-19 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.96%EV -10.54%E -6.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.25%EV -10.56%E -3.22%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-19 21:46
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.57%EV -13.14%E -7.87%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-19 21:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -11.93%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.44%EV -13.14%E -7.87%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.61%EV -11.93%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.95%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-19 21:50
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.33%EV -5.86%E -3.24%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-19 21:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.84%EV -8.46%E -4.81%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-19 21:45
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-19 17:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.43%EV -15.74%E -9.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.32%EV -15.04%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.24%EV -19.56%E -6.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -17.11%E -4.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-19 21:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -17.11%E -4.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -21.47%E -7.45%K -11.42%G +0.000%17.5%2026-03-19 21:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 53.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-03-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-03-19 21:55
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%1.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-03-19 21:40