L’École des cotes

Grêmio v Vitoria

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-19 22:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Prévision 52.01%1.92cote équitable
EV -2.74%
Avantage -1.47%
Kelly -3.15%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.87

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.18%52.05%52.01%54.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.771.801.8761.73%56.58%55.56%53.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Vitoria (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.72%4.83cote équitable
EV +6.51%
Avantage +1.27%
Kelly +1.57%
Croissance +0.102%

avec la cote maximale 5.14

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.89%20.72%20.79%22.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.544.555.1425.00%22.00%21.98%19.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.27%3.67cote équitable
EV +0.894%
Avantage +0.242%
Kelly +0.331%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 3.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.65%27.23%27.20%29.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.423.433.7034.72%29.27%29.15%27.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 53.36%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.89%EV +6.51%E +1.27%K +1.57%G +0.102%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-19 21:50
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.36%EV +3.61%E +0.722%K +0.903%G +0.033%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.74%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 21:45
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:55
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:54
BetAnything1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:54
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -7.42%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV +1.54%E +0.314%K +0.394%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.894%E +0.242%K +0.331%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Svenska Spel1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -7.42%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV +1.54%E +0.314%K +0.394%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.894%E +0.242%K +0.331%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-19 21:55
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -0.534%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-19 21:54
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -7.94%E -4.49%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -0.534%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 21:53
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 21:44
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 52.18%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 21:52
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Grosvenor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Casumo1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
betPARX1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
GTbets1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.11%EV -1.98%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.90%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 21:44
Unibet (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.14%EV -9.50%E -5.46%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.469%E -0.129%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 21:54
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 54.43%EV -10.54%E -6.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -0.469%E -0.129%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 21:35
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -3.20%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -3.20%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 21:55
Codere (IT)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.13%EV -5.86%E -3.24%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 21:50
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.27%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:50
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -6.90%E -3.86%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.83%E -2.32%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 21:54
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -12.62%E -7.51%K -18.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-19 21:54
Virgin Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 54.29%EV -13.66%E -8.23%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-19 21:55
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 54.29%EV -13.66%E -8.23%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Coolbet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.96%EV -2.74%E -1.47%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -6.74%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-19 10:00
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:44
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:53
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 21:49
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-19 21:54
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 21:45
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 21:45
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -11.06%E -6.47%K -15.58%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.20%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-19 21:55
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 12:29
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 21:55
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -10.27%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -15.47%E -4.99%K -7.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-19 21:54
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-19 21:55
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.96%EV -10.54%E -6.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.25%EV -10.56%E -3.22%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-19 21:46
Parions Sport (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.57%EV -13.14%E -7.87%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-19 21:44
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -11.93%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 21:49
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.44%EV -13.14%E -7.87%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.61%EV -11.93%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.95%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-19 21:50
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Bet Right1.81I 55.25%NM 51.33%EV -5.86%E -3.24%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 21:50
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-19 21:49
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.84%EV -8.46%E -4.81%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-19 21:45
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-19 17:29
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 51.43%EV -15.74%E -9.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.32%EV -15.04%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.24%EV -19.56%E -6.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -17.11%E -4.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-19 21:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -17.11%E -4.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -21.47%E -7.45%K -11.42%G +0.000%17.5%2026-03-19 21:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 53.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-03-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-03-19 21:55
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%1.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-03-19 21:40