La escuela de los momios

Grêmio v Vitoria

Inicio: 2026-03-19 22:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Predicción 52.01%1.92momio equitativo
EV -2.74%
Ventaja -1.47%
Kelly -3.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.18%52.05%52.01%54.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.771.801.8761.73%56.58%55.56%53.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Vitoria (Visitante)

Predicción 20.72%4.83momio equitativo
EV +6.51%
Ventaja +1.27%
Kelly +1.57%
Crecimiento +0.102%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.89%20.72%20.79%22.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.544.555.1425.00%22.00%21.98%19.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.27%3.67momio equitativo
EV +0.894%
Ventaja +0.242%
Kelly +0.331%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.65%27.23%27.20%29.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.423.433.7034.72%29.27%29.15%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 53.36%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.89%EV +6.51%E +1.27%K +1.57%G +0.102%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-19 21:50
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.36%EV +3.61%E +0.722%K +0.903%G +0.033%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.74%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-19 21:45
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:55
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:54
BetAnything1.80I 55.56%NM 52.89%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.35%EV +1.95%E +0.397%K +0.498%G +0.010%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -6.47%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 21:54
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -7.42%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV +1.54%E +0.314%K +0.394%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.894%E +0.242%K +0.331%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Svenska Spel1.78I 56.18%NM 54.22%EV -7.42%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV +1.54%E +0.314%K +0.394%G +0.006%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV +0.894%E +0.242%K +0.331%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-19 21:55
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -0.534%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-19 21:54
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -7.94%E -4.49%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -0.534%E -0.111%K -0.141%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 21:53
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-19 21:44
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 52.18%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 21:52
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Grosvenor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Unibet (NL)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Casumo1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
betPARX1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -1.57%E -0.331%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.83%E -0.509%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 21:55
GTbets1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.11%EV -1.98%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.90%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 21:44
Unibet (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.14%EV -9.50%E -5.46%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.04%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.469%E -0.129%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 21:54
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 54.43%EV -10.54%E -6.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -0.469%E -0.129%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 21:35
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -3.20%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -2.61%E -0.555%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -3.20%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 21:55
Codere (IT)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.13%EV -5.86%E -3.24%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 21:50
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.27%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:50
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -6.90%E -3.86%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.83%E -2.32%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 21:54
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -12.62%E -7.51%K -18.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-19 21:54
Virgin Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 54.29%EV -13.66%E -8.23%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-19 21:55
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 54.29%EV -13.66%E -8.23%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -4.68%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Coolbet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.96%EV -2.74%E -1.47%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.86%EV -6.74%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-19 10:00
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:44
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 21:53
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 21:49
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -6.75%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.74%E -3.98%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-19 21:54
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 21:45
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.65%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-19 21:45
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -11.06%E -6.47%K -15.58%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.20%EV -7.79%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-19 21:55
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.34%E -2.94%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 12:29
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.29%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 21:55
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.82%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 21:54
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -8.98%E -5.13%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -10.27%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -15.47%E -4.99%K -7.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-19 21:54
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-19 21:55
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.96%EV -10.54%E -6.13%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.25%EV -10.56%E -3.22%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-19 21:46
Parions Sport (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.57%EV -13.14%E -7.87%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -10.90%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-19 21:44
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -11.93%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 21:49
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.44%EV -13.14%E -7.87%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.61%EV -11.93%E -2.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.95%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-19 21:50
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.82%E -2.64%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Bet Right1.81I 55.25%NM 51.33%EV -5.86%E -3.24%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 21:50
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.56%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-19 21:49
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.84%EV -8.46%E -4.81%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-19 21:45
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -6.38%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -12.97%E -3.09%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-19 17:29
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 51.43%EV -15.74%E -9.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.32%EV -15.04%E -3.67%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.24%EV -19.56%E -6.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -11.58%E -6.81%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -17.11%E -4.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -10.01%E -3.03%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-19 21:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -10.02%E -5.79%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -17.11%E -4.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -21.47%E -7.45%K -11.42%G +0.000%17.5%2026-03-19 21:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 53.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-03-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-03-19 21:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-03-19 21:55
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%1.6%2026-03-19 21:55
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-03-19 21:40