The School of Odds

Grêmio v Sao Paulo

2026-08-08 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 39.72%2.52fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%39.69%39.45%40.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.352.4347.62%43.22%42.55%41.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 31.20%3.20fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.47%31.13%31.33%31.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.953.1036.36%34.07%33.90%32.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.08%3.44fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%29.18%29.22%30.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.183.3033.33%31.70%31.45%30.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.43I 41.15%NM 39.49%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.16%EV -3.89%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.35%EV -4.91%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-27 16:50
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-27 16:35
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -7.02%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 16:25
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -7.02%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.95%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 16:24
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:25
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:25
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:25
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-27 14:24
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.50%EV -6.26%E -2.65%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -6.70%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -7.53%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 16:45
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -3.27%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 16:30
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 16:30
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 16:28
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.95%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 16:30
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.65%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.86%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.65%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -10.14%E -3.52%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.86%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 16:30
Codere (IT)2.27I 44.05%NM 40.94%EV -9.84%E -4.33%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 14:25
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -10.63%E -4.73%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -7.95%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 14:25
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -12.62%E -5.74%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -14.19%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-27 16:30
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -14.61%E -6.79%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -12.63%E -4.51%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -8.40%E -2.67%K -3.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -14.61%E -6.79%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.67%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -11.31%E -3.71%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-27 14:25
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -16.59%E -7.90%K -15.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -14.19%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -9.86%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-27 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.