Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Sao Paulo

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 19:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 2–1 Sao Paulo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 40.50%2.47fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.62%40.49%40.49%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.302.4147.62%43.37%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 28.66%3.49fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +0.653%
Kelly +0.907%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.10%28.67%28.63%30.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.213.203.5733.90%31.20%31.25%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.83%3.24fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.608%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.73%30.85%30.88%31.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.023.2035.71%33.09%33.11%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 40.50%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 28.66%; Draw: 30.83%. For Sao Paulo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.17%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV +2.33%E +0.653%K +0.907%G +0.021%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.72%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.49%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.58%EV -1.11%E -0.322%K -0.453%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 18:39
GTbets🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.63%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.04%EV -1.97%E -0.576%K -0.814%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.33%EV -5.65%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 18:35
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.62%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.08%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 18:49
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 18:44
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.25%EV -2.38%E -0.989%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.79%EV -2.88%E -0.914%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -7.25%E -3.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 18:35
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:34
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 18:43
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.40%EV -6.44%E -2.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 18:49
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 18:55
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -14.94%E -7.11%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:55
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:48
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:48
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.20%E -3.89%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.20%E -3.89%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.03%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 31.83%EV -12.75%E -4.50%K -6.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 18:44
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.89%E -4.95%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:34
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:39
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:14
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -12.92%E -6.01%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -13.67%E -4.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 18:44
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -7.65%E -3.36%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:04
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -7.65%E -3.36%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.47I 40.49%NM 40.71%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.16%3.23I 30.96%NM 31.13%-0.5%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%1.2%2026-08-08 18:55

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