Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Grêmio v Sao Paulo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-08 19:00 UTC

Score final : Grêmio 2–1 Sao Paulo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Grêmio (Local)

Prévision 40.50%2.47cote équitable
EV -2.38%
Avantage -0.989%
Kelly -1.69%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.41

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.62%40.49%40.49%42.62%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.102.312.302.4147.62%43.37%43.48%41.49%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visiteur)

Prévision 28.66%3.49cote équitable
EV +2.33%
Avantage +0.653%
Kelly +0.907%
Croissance +0.021%

avec la cote maximale 3.57

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.10%28.67%28.63%30.31%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.953.213.203.5733.90%31.20%31.25%28.01%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 30.83%3.24cote équitable
EV -1.34%
Avantage -0.418%
Kelly -0.608%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.73%30.85%30.88%31.99%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.803.023.023.2035.71%33.09%33.11%31.25%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Grêmio (Local) : 40.50% ; Sao Paulo (Visiteur) : 28.66% ; Match nul : 30.83%. Pour Sao Paulo (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.49. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.57, soit une espérance positive de +2.33%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.17%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV +2.33%E +0.653%K +0.907%G +0.021%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.72%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.49%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.58%EV -1.11%E -0.322%K -0.453%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 18:39
GTbets🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.63%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.04%EV -1.97%E -0.576%K -0.814%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.33%EV -5.65%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 18:35
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.62%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.08%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 18:49
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 18:44
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.25%EV -2.38%E -0.989%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.79%EV -2.88%E -0.914%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -7.25%E -3.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 18:35
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:34
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 18:43
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.40%EV -6.44%E -2.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 18:49
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 18:55
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -14.94%E -7.11%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:55
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:48
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:48
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.20%E -3.89%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.20%E -3.89%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.03%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 31.83%EV -12.75%E -4.50%K -6.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 18:44
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.89%E -4.95%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:34
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:39
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:14
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -12.92%E -6.01%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -13.67%E -4.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 18:44
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -7.65%E -3.36%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:04
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -7.65%E -3.36%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎2.47I 40.49%NM 40.71%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.16%3.23I 30.96%NM 31.13%-0.5%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%1.2%2026-08-08 18:55