默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Grêmio v Sao Paulo

开赛时间: 2026-08-08 19:00 UTC

最终结果: Grêmio 2–1 Sao Paulo

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型,根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始,因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

55 家博彩公司 (20 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Grêmio (主队)

预测 40.50%2.47公平赔率
EV -2.38%
优势 -0.989%
Kelly -1.69%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.41

博彩公司预测分布
38.62%40.49%40.49%42.62%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.102.312.302.4147.62%43.37%43.48%41.49%最小值均值中位数最大值

Sao Paulo (客队)

预测 28.66%3.49公平赔率
EV +2.33%
优势 +0.653%
Kelly +0.907%
增长率 +0.021%

假设最高赔率为 3.57

博彩公司预测分布
27.10%28.67%28.63%30.31%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.953.213.203.5733.90%31.20%31.25%28.01%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 30.83%3.24公平赔率
EV -1.34%
优势 -0.418%
Kelly -0.608%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.20

博彩公司预测分布
29.73%30.85%30.88%31.99%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.803.023.023.2035.71%33.09%33.11%31.25%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为:Grêmio (主队):40.50%;Sao Paulo (客队):28.66%;平局:30.83%。 对于“Sao Paulo (客队)”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.49。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率;最佳赔率为3.57,对应+2.33%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (55 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.17%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV +2.33%E +0.653%K +0.907%G +0.021%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.72%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.25%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.76%EV -0.250%E -0.072%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -6.89%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 18:44
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.49%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.58%EV -1.11%E -0.322%K -0.453%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 18:39
GTbets🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.63%EV -4.41%E -1.87%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.04%EV -1.97%E -0.576%K -0.814%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.33%EV -5.65%E -1.85%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 18:35
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.62%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.08%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 18:49
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 18:44
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.25%EV -2.38%E -0.989%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.79%EV -2.88%E -0.914%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -7.25%E -3.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 18:35
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 18:34
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -4.81%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 18:43
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.40%EV -6.44%E -2.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 18:49
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 18:55
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -14.94%E -7.11%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.00%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 18:55
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:48
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:48
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -8.12%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.20%E -3.89%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -11.20%E -3.89%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.03%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 31.83%EV -12.75%E -4.50%K -6.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 18:44
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.89%E -4.95%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:34
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -5.63%E -2.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 18:39
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:14
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -12.92%E -6.01%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -13.67%E -4.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 18:44
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -7.65%E -3.36%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.96%E -1.96%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 18:04
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -7.65%E -3.36%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -9.68%E -4.34%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.05%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 18:55
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (6)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi◎2.47I 40.49%NM 40.71%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.16%3.23I 30.96%NM 31.13%-0.5%2026-08-08 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-08-08 18:55
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%0.8%2026-08-08 18:55
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%1.2%2026-08-08 18:55