Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Palmeiras

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 0–0 Palmeiras

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.560%
Kelly +0.727%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%23.42%23.58%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.014.004.3527.78%24.94%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 49.60%2.02fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.06%49.75%49.59%52.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.871.9556.82%53.94%53.48%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.85%3.72fair odd
EV +0.689%
Edge +0.184%
Kelly +0.251%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.57%26.84%26.83%28.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.74%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 23.55%; Palmeiras (Visit): 49.60%; Draw: 26.85%. For Grêmio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.44%E +0.560%K +0.727%G +0.018%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.39%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV +0.689%E +0.184%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.3%2026-09-20 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.44%E +0.560%K +0.727%G +0.018%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.39%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV +0.689%E +0.184%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.3%2026-09-20 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
BetAnything🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
Pinnacle🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.56%EV +0.788%E +0.184%K +0.240%G +0.002%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.02%EV -4.27%E -2.21%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.49%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-20 13:55
1xBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.57%EV +0.082%E +0.019%K +0.025%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.42%EV -2.53%E -0.698%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 13:55
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV +0.082%E +0.019%K +0.025%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.06%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 13:25
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 13:23
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:24
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 03:29
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.45%E -0.842%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 03:25
GTbets🎯4.09I 24.45%NM 23.03%EV -3.69%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.37%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.61%EV -4.95%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 12:30
Coolbet🎯4.06I 24.63%NM 23.46%EV -4.39%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.85%EV -3.28%E -1.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.69%EV -7.63%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 06:25
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.61%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 12:54
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 11:10
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:23
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.72%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -7.63%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 13:33
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 13:34
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.19%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 13:24
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 13:24
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 04:14
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.36%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 13:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:25
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.18%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:54
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 13:48
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 13:48
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 04:14
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 11:44
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -10.05%E -3.00%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 13:54
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:54
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 11:44
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 04:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.48%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 13:34
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -14.08%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 13:25
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:44
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 03:28
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.87%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.43%EV -8.73%E -4.75%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 04:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -14.05%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.33%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-20 13:34
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -15.23%E -4.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -9.73%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 04:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-09-20 13:04
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-09-20 13:55