Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio v Palmeiras

Início: 2026-09-20 14:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 0–0 Palmeiras

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio (Local)

Previsão 23.55%4.25odd justa
EV +2.44%
Vantagem +0.560%
Kelly +0.727%
Crescimento +0.018%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.87%23.42%23.58%24.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.604.014.004.3527.78%24.94%25.00%22.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Palmeiras (Visitante)

Previsão 49.60%2.02odd justa
EV -3.28%
Vantagem -1.68%
Kelly -3.45%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.06%49.75%49.59%52.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.761.851.871.9556.82%53.94%53.48%51.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.85%3.72odd justa
EV +0.689%
Vantagem +0.184%
Kelly +0.251%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.57%26.84%26.83%28.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.74%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio (Local): 23.55%; Palmeiras (Visitante): 49.60%; Empate: 26.85%. Para Grêmio (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.25. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.35, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.44%.

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.44%E +0.560%K +0.727%G +0.018%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.39%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV +0.689%E +0.184%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.3%2026-09-20 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.44%E +0.560%K +0.727%G +0.018%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.39%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV +0.689%E +0.184%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.3%2026-09-20 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
BetAnything🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
Pinnacle🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.56%EV +0.788%E +0.184%K +0.240%G +0.002%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.02%EV -4.27%E -2.21%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.49%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-20 13:55
1xBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.57%EV +0.082%E +0.019%K +0.025%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.42%EV -2.53%E -0.698%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 13:55
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV +0.082%E +0.019%K +0.025%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.06%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 13:25
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 13:23
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:24
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 03:29
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.45%E -0.842%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 03:25
GTbets🎯4.09I 24.45%NM 23.03%EV -3.69%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.37%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.61%EV -4.95%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 12:30
Coolbet🎯4.06I 24.63%NM 23.46%EV -4.39%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.85%EV -3.28%E -1.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.69%EV -7.63%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 06:25
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.61%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 12:54
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 11:10
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:23
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.72%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -7.63%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 13:33
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 13:34
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.19%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 13:24
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 13:24
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 04:14
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.36%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 13:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:25
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.18%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:54
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 13:48
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 13:48
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 04:14
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 11:44
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -10.05%E -3.00%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 13:54
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:54
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 11:44
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 04:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.48%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 13:34
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -14.08%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 13:25
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:44
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 03:28
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.87%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.43%EV -8.73%E -4.75%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 04:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -14.05%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.33%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-20 13:34
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -15.23%E -4.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -9.73%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 04:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-09-20 13:04
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-09-20 13:55