Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Grêmio v Palmeiras

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-20 14:00 UTC

Score final : Grêmio 0–0 Palmeiras

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Grêmio (Local)

Prévision 23.55%4.25cote équitable
EV +2.44%
Avantage +0.560%
Kelly +0.727%
Croissance +0.018%

avec la cote maximale 4.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.87%23.42%23.58%24.87%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.604.014.004.3527.78%24.94%25.00%22.99%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Palmeiras (Visiteur)

Prévision 49.60%2.02cote équitable
EV -3.28%
Avantage -1.68%
Kelly -3.45%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.06%49.75%49.59%52.39%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.761.851.871.9556.82%53.94%53.48%51.28%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 26.85%3.72cote équitable
EV +0.689%
Avantage +0.184%
Kelly +0.251%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.57%26.84%26.83%28.14%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.74%28.57%26.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Grêmio (Local) : 23.55% ; Palmeiras (Visiteur) : 49.60% ; Match nul : 26.85%. Pour Grêmio (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.25. 8 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.35, soit une espérance positive de +2.44%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.44%E +0.560%K +0.727%G +0.018%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.39%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV +0.689%E +0.184%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.3%2026-09-20 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.44%E +0.560%K +0.727%G +0.018%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.39%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV +0.689%E +0.184%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.3%2026-09-20 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
BetAnything🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 22.31%EV +1.97%E +0.454%K +0.590%G +0.012%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 13:34
Pinnacle🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.56%EV +0.788%E +0.184%K +0.240%G +0.002%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.02%EV -4.27%E -2.21%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.49%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-20 13:55
1xBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.57%EV +0.082%E +0.019%K +0.025%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.42%EV -2.53%E -0.698%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 13:55
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV +0.082%E +0.019%K +0.025%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.06%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 13:25
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 13:23
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:24
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -1.10%E -0.261%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 03:29
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.45%E -0.842%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 03:25
GTbets🎯4.09I 24.45%NM 23.03%EV -3.69%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.37%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.61%EV -4.95%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 12:30
Coolbet🎯4.06I 24.63%NM 23.46%EV -4.39%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.85%EV -3.28%E -1.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.69%EV -7.63%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 06:25
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.61%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 12:54
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 11:10
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:23
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.72%EV -7.25%E -3.87%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -7.63%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 13:33
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 13:34
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.19%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 13:24
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 13:24
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -5.81%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -12.21%E -6.90%K -15.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 04:14
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.36%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 13:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:25
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.18%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.68%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:54
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 13:48
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.26%E -2.76%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 13:48
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 04:14
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 11:44
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -10.05%E -3.00%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 13:54
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:49
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.16%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.24%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 12:54
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 11:44
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -9.34%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -4.77%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 04:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.48%EV -12.70%E -7.22%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 13:34
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -10.52%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -10.72%E -5.95%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -14.08%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 13:25
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.76%E -3.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:44
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 03:28
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.87%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.43%EV -8.73%E -4.75%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 04:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -14.05%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.33%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-20 13:34
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -15.23%E -4.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -9.73%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 04:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-09-20 13:55
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-09-20 13:04
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-09-20 13:55