The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Grêmio v Cruzeiro

2026-10-18 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 30.46%3.28fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.789%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.53%30.54%30.31%31.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.2036.36%33.17%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruzeiro (Visit)

Prediction 42.81%2.34fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.23%42.71%42.88%45.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.152.172.2653.19%46.51%46.08%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.73%3.74fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.295%
Kelly -0.404%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%26.75%26.81%27.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.453.7030.77%29.12%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Grêmio (Local): 30.46%; Cruzeiro (Visit): 42.81%; Draw: 26.73%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -1.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -2.52%E -0.789%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.17%EV -4.54%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.09%EV -2.52%E -0.789%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.17%EV -4.54%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 14:00
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.46%EV -3.26%E -1.44%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.58%EV -3.50%E -0.969%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 14:00
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 19:03
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.44%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.94%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.94%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.94%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.94%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.94%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.94%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.97%E -3.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.11%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.09%E -2.33%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -1.09%E -0.295%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 13:59
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.09%E -2.33%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.97%E -3.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.44%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 14:01
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.09%E -2.33%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -7.97%E -3.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -7.77%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.09%E -2.33%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -7.97%E -3.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.45%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.57%EV -7.09%E -2.33%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.35%EV -10.96%E -5.27%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.08%EV -10.98%E -3.30%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 19:04
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 14:00
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.97%E -3.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 13:58
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.97%E -3.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:08
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -10.45%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.45%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.45%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.45%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -10.11%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.45%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.53%EV -8.62%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.53%EV -19.52%E -10.38%K -22.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -11.78%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.78%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:00
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.78%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.78%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.78%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -12.25%E -5.97%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -11.78%E -3.57%K -5.12%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-10 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -12.27%E -4.26%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.44%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -12.27%E -4.26%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -10.11%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -6.44%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 13:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.29%EV -13.19%E -4.63%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.16%EV -14.39%E -7.19%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.56%EV -13.12%E -4.04%K -5.83%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.37%EV -16.23%E -5.90%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.08%EV -12.25%E -5.97%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.55%EV -13.12%E -4.04%K -5.83%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-10 13:57
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 30.13%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.25%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.62%16.0%2026-10-10 16:30
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 29.81%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.50%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.69%16.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-10 14:00