Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fluminense (Local)

Prediction 51.74%1.93fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.50%51.82%51.81%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.771.781.8762.50%56.47%56.18%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 20.48%4.88fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +0.834%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 5.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.04%20.44%20.45%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.624.655.0925.00%21.64%21.51%19.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.78%3.60fair odd
EV -0.004%
Edge -0.001%
Kelly -0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.29%27.74%27.74%28.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.363.403.6033.90%29.73%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fluminense (Local): 51.74%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 20.48%; Draw: 27.78%. For Atletico Paranaense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.95%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 19.04%EV +4.25%E +0.834%K +1.04%G +0.044%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.01%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.51%EV -4.79%E -2.61%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.25%EV +2.81%E +0.560%K +0.700%G +0.020%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.25%EV -5.00%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-15 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.04%EV -7.90%E -4.44%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.24%EV +2.40%E +0.481%K +0.601%G +0.014%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.04%EV -7.90%E -4.44%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.24%EV +2.40%E +0.481%K +0.601%G +0.014%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.19%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.24%EV +0.355%E +0.072%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.19%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.24%EV +0.355%E +0.072%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.19%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.24%EV +0.355%E +0.072%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.19%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.24%EV +0.355%E +0.072%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.19%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.24%EV +0.355%E +0.072%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.19%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.24%EV +0.355%E +0.072%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.38%EV -5.83%E -3.20%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.58%EV -0.260%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.38%EV -5.83%E -3.20%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.58%EV -0.260%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 18:20
BetAnything🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.38%EV -5.83%E -3.20%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.58%EV -0.260%E -0.053%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 18:20
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.25%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.80%EV -1.08%E -0.223%K -0.282%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.96%EV -5.00%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 18:30
Bovada🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.93%EV -6.35%E -3.51%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -1.69%E -0.353%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.48%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -11.00%E -6.40%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -1.69%E -0.353%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -1.39%E -0.392%K -0.546%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -8.42%E -4.75%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -1.69%E -0.353%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.00%EV -11.52%E -6.74%K -16.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -1.69%E -0.353%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.14%EV -12.04%E -7.08%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV -1.69%E -0.353%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.45%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.25%EV -2.72%E -0.572%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-15 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.72%E -0.572%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:55
BetUS🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.54%EV -7.38%E -4.12%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -2.72%E -0.572%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 18:34
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.18%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.78%EV -2.72%E -0.572%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -9.45%E -5.40%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -3.74%E -0.796%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.01%EV -13.07%E -7.78%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -3.74%E -0.796%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.09%EV -14.11%E -8.50%K -21.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.10%EV -3.74%E -0.796%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.09%EV -14.11%E -8.50%K -21.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.10%EV -3.74%E -0.796%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.45%EV -4.77%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -5.79%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 18:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.79%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 18:55
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.79%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.79%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.79%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.28%EV -4.79%E -2.61%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 18:20
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.78%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.07%EV -4.79%E -2.61%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 18:40
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.45%E -5.40%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 18:13
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.95%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%EV -7.84%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-15 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.83%E -3.20%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -8.86%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 18:13
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.22%EV -5.83%E -3.20%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -8.86%E -1.99%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 18:15
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -9.89%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.87%EV -7.90%E -4.44%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -9.89%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 18:40
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.44%EV -11.52%E -6.74%K -16.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -9.89%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 18:40
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -11.32%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 18:19
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.08%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.41%EV -11.32%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.62%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-15 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.31%E -2.90%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -11.93%E -2.78%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.83%EV -11.00%E -6.40%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -11.93%E -2.78%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -9.73%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.29%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.00%EV -12.96%E -3.05%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.71%EV -10.56%E -3.28%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-15 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.15%EV -7.90%E -4.44%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -13.98%E -3.33%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-15 18:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.22%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.10%EV -13.98%E -3.33%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 51.99%EV -17.21%E -10.76%K -28.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.81%EV -13.98%E -3.33%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.20%EV -18.06%E -6.12%K -9.26%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-15 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.54%EV -9.97%E -5.73%K -13.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -18.08%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-15 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 50.65%EV -13.59%E -8.14%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.15%EV -18.08%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.20%EV -16.67%E -5.56%K -8.34%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-15 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.01%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-03-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.01%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-03-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.01%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-03-15 18:55
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.26%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.48%1.8%2026-03-15 18:55