Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Final: Flamengo 2–2 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo (Local)

Prediction 65.20%1.53fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.31%65.18%65.19%67.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.5073.53%69.75%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 12.96%7.72fair odd
EV +3.64%
Edge +0.455%
Kelly +0.520%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.49%13.01%12.84%14.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.907.087.008.0016.95%14.12%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.84%4.58fair odd
EV +0.474%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.73%21.81%21.96%23.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.224.204.6026.67%23.70%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo (Local): 65.20%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 12.96%; Draw: 21.84%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.72. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.67%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.520%G +0.019%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 18:35
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.74%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.520%G +0.019%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.12%EV -10.67%E -7.79%K -28.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.520%G +0.019%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:30
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.01%EV -4.80%E -3.29%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.91I 12.64%NM 12.18%EV +2.48%E +0.313%K +0.358%G +0.009%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.80%EV -3.46%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.72%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV +0.403%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -0.618%E -0.136%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.72%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV +0.403%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -0.618%E -0.136%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:30
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.72%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV +0.403%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -0.618%E -0.136%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:30
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.87%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.80%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.49%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.32%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.64%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.89%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:51
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -11.32%E -8.33%K -31.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 18:30
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.62%EV -4.13%E -0.558%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.51%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:40
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.62%EV -4.13%E -0.558%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.51%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:36
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.26%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.78%EV -5.43%E -0.743%K -0.861%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 18:35
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.04%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.92%EV -6.07%E -0.838%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -6.07%E -0.838%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:45
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.85%E -1.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.16I 13.97%NM 13.58%EV -7.24%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.14%EV +0.474%E +0.103%K +0.132%G +0.001%2.8%2026-05-03 18:51
GTbets🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.75%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.08I 14.12%NM 13.26%EV -8.28%E -1.17%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.99%EV -6.73%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.14%EV -2.20%E -1.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.74%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -4.99%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.14%EV -2.20%E -1.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.74%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -4.99%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.01%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.23%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -3.89%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:40
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.75%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:35
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.80%E -3.29%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:35
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:36
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:36
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 18:35
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:35
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:36
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:35
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.14%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -14.82%E -3.80%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.06%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:36
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.08%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.24%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:35
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.24%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.21%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.21%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.71%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:35
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.73%EV -10.02%E -7.26%K -26.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.53%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.73%EV -10.02%E -7.26%K -26.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.53%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.62%EV -11.32%E -8.33%K -31.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -18.09%E -4.82%K -6.58%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-03 18:30
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -8.06%E -5.72%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -19.03%E -3.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -3.89%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.67%EV -10.02%E -7.26%K -26.37%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.89%EV -23.56%E -3.99%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 66.77%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-05-03 18:56
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.04%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.62%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.34%3.0%2026-05-03 18:51