La escuela de los momios

Flamengo v Vasco da Gama

Inicio: 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Final: Flamengo 2–2 Vasco da Gama

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Flamengo (Local)

Predicción 65.20%1.53momio equitativo
EV -2.20%
Ventaja -1.46%
Kelly -4.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.31%65.18%65.19%67.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.361.431.441.5073.53%69.75%69.44%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Vasco da Gama (Visitante)

Predicción 12.96%7.72momio equitativo
EV +3.64%
Ventaja +0.455%
Kelly +0.520%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.49%13.01%12.84%14.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.907.087.008.0016.95%14.12%14.29%12.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.84%4.58momio equitativo
EV +0.474%
Ventaja +0.103%
Kelly +0.132%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.73%21.81%21.96%23.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.224.204.6026.67%23.70%23.81%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 65.67%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.520%G +0.019%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 18:35
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.74%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.520%G +0.019%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:30
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 67.12%EV -10.67%E -7.79%K -28.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +3.64%E +0.455%K +0.520%G +0.019%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:30
Pinnacle1.46I 68.49%NM 66.01%EV -4.80%E -3.29%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.91I 12.64%NM 12.18%EV +2.48%E +0.313%K +0.358%G +0.009%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.80%EV -3.46%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 18:55
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 66.72%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV +0.403%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -0.618%E -0.136%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:30
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 66.72%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV +0.403%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -0.618%E -0.136%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:30
BetAnything1.43I 69.93%NM 66.72%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV +0.403%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -0.618%E -0.136%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 18:30
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.87%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.80%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 18:30
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 65.49%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Bovada1.44I 69.44%NM 65.32%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Bet Right1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:40
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.64%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 18:40
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.89%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:54
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:51
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -11.32%E -8.33%K -31.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -2.84%E -0.378%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 18:30
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.62%EV -4.13%E -0.558%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.51%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:40
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.62%EV -4.13%E -0.558%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.51%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:36
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.26%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.78%EV -5.43%E -0.743%K -0.861%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 18:35
BetUS1.44I 69.44%NM 65.04%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.92%EV -6.07%E -0.838%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV -6.07%E -0.838%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:45
1xBet1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -2.85%E -1.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.16I 13.97%NM 13.58%EV -7.24%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.14%EV +0.474%E +0.103%K +0.132%G +0.001%2.8%2026-05-03 18:51
GTbets1.45I 68.97%NM 64.75%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.08I 14.12%NM 13.26%EV -8.28%E -1.17%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.99%EV -6.73%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:34
Svenska Spel1.50I 66.67%NM 64.14%EV -2.20%E -1.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.74%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -4.99%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 18:35
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 64.14%EV -2.20%E -1.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.74%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -4.99%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.01%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Codere (IT)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.23%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -3.89%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:40
DraftKings1.45I 68.97%NM 64.75%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -6.08%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 18:35
Unibet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.80%E -3.29%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:35
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:30
BetRivers1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
Unibet (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
Grosvenor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
Casumo1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:36
Unibet (NL)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:35
betPARX1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 18:36
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -5.46%E -3.76%K -12.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 18:35
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:35
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:35
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:36
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.11%E -4.24%K -13.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:35
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 18:40
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.14%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -9.31%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -14.82%E -3.80%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 18:30
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 64.06%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.26%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:36
LeoVegas1.43I 69.93%NM 64.08%EV -6.76%E -4.73%K -15.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 18:35
PMU (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.24%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:35
TABtouch1.42I 70.42%NM 64.24%EV -7.41%E -5.22%K -17.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:36
Virgin Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.21%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.21%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -12.55%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -12.63%E -3.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.71%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:35
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -5.42%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 18:30
Unibet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.73%EV -10.02%E -7.26%K -26.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.53%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.73%EV -10.02%E -7.26%K -26.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.53%EV -9.35%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.62%EV -11.32%E -8.33%K -31.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -15.79%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -18.09%E -4.82%K -6.58%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-03 18:30
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -3.50%E -2.37%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -17.09%E -2.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.17%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 18:35
Winamax (DE)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -8.06%E -5.72%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -19.03%E -3.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -3.89%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:35
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.67%EV -10.02%E -7.26%K -26.37%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.89%EV -23.56%E -3.99%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -10.45%E -2.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-05-03 18:55
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 66.77%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-05-03 18:56
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.04%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.62%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.34%3.0%2026-05-03 18:51