The School of Odds

Chapecoense v Vasco da Gama

2026-07-29 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 34.44%2.90fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.13%34.44%34.37%35.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.662.702.8042%38%37%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 38.41%2.60fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.803%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.00%38.41%38.48%38.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.422.5545%42%41%39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.628%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.41%27.15%27.16%27.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.403.453.6032%29%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel2.80I 35.71%NM 34.77%EV -3.57%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.18%EV -2.05%E -0.803%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.05%EV -2.26%E -0.628%K -0.870%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-19 17:15
ATG (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.77%EV -3.57%E -1.28%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.18%EV -2.05%E -0.803%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.05%EV -2.26%E -0.628%K -0.870%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-19 17:14
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -6.33%E -2.33%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -7.04%E -2.91%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-19 17:55
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -6.33%E -2.33%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -7.04%E -2.91%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-19 17:55
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:14
Grosvenor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:15
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:14
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:14
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:14
BetRivers2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:15
betPARX2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.89%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 17:15
TABtouch2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -6.66%E -2.74%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.33%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 17:15
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -7.02%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.08%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-19 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.84%EV -8.74%E -3.30%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.00%EV -6.66%E -2.74%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 17:14
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.74%E -3.30%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -7.81%E -3.25%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-19 17:55
PMU (FR)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.60%EV -9.43%E -3.58%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.58%E -3.60%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-19 17:15
LiveScore Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.60%EV -9.43%E -3.58%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.58%E -3.60%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-19 17:15
Virgin Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.60%EV -9.43%E -3.58%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.58%E -3.60%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.05%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-19 17:14
Betclic (FR)2.53I 39.53%NM 34.13%EV -12.87%E -5.09%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.89%EV -14.72%E -6.63%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.98%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-19 17:54
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -13.90%E -5.56%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -10.41%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-19 17:55
Unibet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -13.90%E -5.56%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.42%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-19 17:55
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.05%EV -17.35%E -7.23%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.24%EV -15.49%E -7.04%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.71%EV -14.48%E -4.60%K -6.73%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-19 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.