Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chapecoense v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 31.54%3.17fair odd
EV -0.660%
Edge -0.209%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.25%31.58%31.59%33.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.942.923.1537.04%34.04%34.25%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 40.53%2.47fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.25%40.52%40.50%41.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.282.302.4048.78%43.82%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.785%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%27.89%27.91%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.313.353.5134.72%30.25%29.85%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chapecoense (Local): 31.54%; Grêmio (Visit): 40.53%; Draw: 27.93%. For Chapecoense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -0.660%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.78%EV -0.660%E -0.209%K -0.307%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.61%EV -5.55%E -2.38%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.62%EV -1.97%E -0.561%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-16 22:50
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.94%EV -1.29%E -0.412%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -5.15%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.67%EV -2.25%E -0.643%K -0.900%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.54%EV -1.61%E -0.515%K -0.758%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 22:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.54%EV -1.61%E -0.515%K -0.758%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 22:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -2.24%E -0.722%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.69%EV -3.53%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -2.24%E -0.722%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.69%EV -3.53%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 22:55
Coolbet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.81%EV -4.76%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.02%EV -2.72%E -1.13%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.17%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-16 22:50
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 22:40
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 22:35
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 22:30
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 22:29
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-16 22:40
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 22:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.39%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.53%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -7.28%E -2.19%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 22:50
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.93%EV -4.34%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 22:54
BetAnything🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.93%EV -4.34%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 22:55
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:55
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -7.58%E -3.32%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 22:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 19:50
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 22:55
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -7.91%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 22:50
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -7.91%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 22:50
GTbets🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.23%E -2.83%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.24%EV -7.18%E -3.13%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.09%EV -8.39%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-16 22:40
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.25%E -0.643%K -0.900%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 22:54
Everygame🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 22:50
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.73%EV -9.61%E -4.31%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-16 22:55
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -3.53%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 22:50
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-16 22:35
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 22:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 22:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 22:55
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-16 22:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.11%EV -9.49%E -3.31%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.15%EV -12.04%E -5.55%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -10.07%E -3.13%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-16 22:40
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 22:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 22:55
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 22:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-16 22:40
Fliff🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.39%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-16 22:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -12.85%E -5.98%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-16 22:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.74%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.71%EV -14.88%E -7.08%K -13.52%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.55%EV -11.19%E -3.52%K -5.13%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-16 22:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -11.70%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-16 22:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -11.70%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -14.88%E -7.08%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -19.57%E -6.79%K -10.41%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-16 22:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -13.27%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -12.85%E -5.98%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-16 22:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.94%EV -14.85%E -5.50%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.75%EV -16.90%E -8.25%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.32%EV -17.61%E -5.97%K -9.03%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-16 22:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.23%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.15%0.1%2026-03-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-16 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-16 22:55
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.23%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11%1.6%2026-03-16 22:50
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.12%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.0%2026-03-16 22:45