La escuela de los momios

Chapecoense v Grêmio

Inicio: 2026-03-16 23:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Predicción 31.54%3.17momio equitativo
EV -0.660%
Ventaja -0.209%
Kelly -0.307%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.25%31.58%31.59%33.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.942.923.1537.04%34.04%34.25%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Grêmio (Visitante)

Predicción 40.53%2.47momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -1.13%
Kelly -1.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.25%40.52%40.50%41.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.282.302.4048.78%43.82%43.48%41.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.93%3.58momio equitativo
EV -1.97%
Ventaja -0.561%
Kelly -0.785%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.82%27.89%27.91%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.313.353.5134.72%30.25%29.85%28.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.78%EV -0.660%E -0.209%K -0.307%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.61%EV -5.55%E -2.38%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.62%EV -1.97%E -0.561%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-16 22:50
Pinnacle3.13I 31.95%NM 30.94%EV -1.29%E -0.412%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -5.15%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.67%EV -2.25%E -0.643%K -0.900%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 22:45
BetOnline.ag3.12I 32.05%NM 30.54%EV -1.61%E -0.515%K -0.758%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 22:35
LowVig.ag3.12I 32.05%NM 30.54%EV -1.61%E -0.515%K -0.758%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.43%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 22:35
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -2.24%E -0.722%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.69%EV -3.53%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 22:55
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -2.24%E -0.722%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.69%EV -3.53%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 22:55
Coolbet3.02I 33.11%NM 31.81%EV -4.76%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.02%EV -2.72%E -1.13%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.17%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-16 22:50
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 22:40
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 22:35
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 22:30
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 22:29
Grosvenor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Casumo3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet (NL)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
betPARX3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:35
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-16 22:40
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.39%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 22:30
Marathon Bet2.97I 33.67%NM 31.39%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.53%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -7.28%E -2.19%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 22:50
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.93%EV -4.34%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 22:54
BetAnything2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.93%EV -4.34%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 22:55
BetUS2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:55
BetRivers2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -7.58%E -3.32%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 22:35
Tipico (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 19:50
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -6.97%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 22:55
Betsson2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -7.91%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 22:50
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -7.91%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -5.96%E -2.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 22:50
GTbets2.91I 34.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.23%E -2.83%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.24%EV -7.18%E -3.13%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.09%EV -8.39%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-16 22:40
Bet Victor2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.77%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.25%E -0.643%K -0.900%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 22:54
Everygame2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 22:50
TABtouch2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.73%EV -9.61%E -4.31%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-16 22:55
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.54%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 22:40
Betway2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -3.53%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 22:50
BoyleSports2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-16 22:35
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 22:30
Virgin Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 22:55
LiveScore Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 22:55
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -9.17%E -3.19%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-16 22:30
Betclic (FR)2.87I 34.84%NM 31.11%EV -9.49%E -3.31%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.15%EV -12.04%E -5.55%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -10.07%E -3.13%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-16 22:40
Bet Right2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 22:55
PointsBet (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 22:55
PlayUp2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -7.84%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 22:50
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.78%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-16 22:40
Fliff2.85I 35.09%NM 31.39%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-16 22:35
Parions Sport (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -12.85%E -5.98%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-16 22:40
Unibet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 30.74%EV -10.12%E -3.55%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.71%EV -14.88%E -7.08%K -13.52%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.55%EV -11.19%E -3.52%K -5.13%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-16 22:50
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -11.70%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -4.74%E -2.02%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.04%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-16 22:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -11.70%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -14.88%E -7.08%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -19.57%E -6.79%K -10.41%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-16 22:30
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -13.27%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -12.85%E -5.98%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-16 22:40
PMU (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 30.94%EV -14.85%E -5.50%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.75%EV -16.90%E -8.25%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.32%EV -17.61%E -5.97%K -9.03%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-16 22:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.23%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.15%0.1%2026-03-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-16 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.12%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-16 22:55
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.23%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11%1.6%2026-03-16 22:50
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.12%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.0%2026-03-16 22:45