The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras

2026-10-17 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 32.11%3.11fair odd
EV +4.34%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.93%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.38%31.89%32.52%33.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.962.983.2539.22%33.79%33.61%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 39.28%2.55fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.00%39.46%38.92%41.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.252.4747.62%43.60%44.44%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.62%3.49fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.795%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.65%28.56%29.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.233.4032.26%31.14%31.01%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 32.11%; Palmeiras (Visit): 39.28%; Draw: 28.62%. For Atletico Paranaense (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 10 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.25, producing a positive expected value of +4.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV +4.34%E +1.34%K +1.93%G +0.084%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.68%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV +4.34%E +1.34%K +1.93%G +0.084%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -9.66%E -4.20%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.68%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:01
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.77%EV -12.41%E -5.56%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -12.80%E -5.77%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV +1.13%E +0.359%K +0.526%G +0.006%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -12.80%E -5.77%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.43%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:01
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -2.08%E -0.682%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -13.59%E -6.18%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -2.08%E -0.682%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -14.37%E -6.59%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 13:59
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -2.08%E -0.682%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -14.37%E -6.59%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -2.08%E -0.682%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -14.37%E -6.59%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -3.68%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.46%EV -14.77%E -6.80%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -5.29%E -1.79%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -7.70%E -3.28%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 13:58
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.75%EV -5.93%E -2.02%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.85%EV -2.98%E -1.21%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.39%EV -3.28%E -0.969%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.89%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -3.77%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -2.70%E -0.795%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.89%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-10 14:01
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -3.77%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -3.77%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 13:59
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.52%E -2.74%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.43%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-10 14:00
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.73%E -2.39%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -11.71%E -4.26%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.83%EV -8.87%E -3.83%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.42%EV -9.29%E -2.93%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -13.32%E -4.93%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -17.52%E -8.34%K -15.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -16.53%E -6.36%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.76%EV -11.62%E -5.17%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.69%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.83%EV -18.13%E -7.11%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.34%EV -11.62%E -5.17%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.83%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 33.08%2.26I 44.25%NM 38.06%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.86%16.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Kalshi◎2.53I 39.53%NM 33.09%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.05%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.86%19.5%2026-10-10 17:00