La escuela de los momiosAtletico Paranaense v Grêmio
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Predicción 53.68%1.86momio equitativo
EV -2.85%
Ventaja -1.57%
Kelly -3.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.81
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.26%53.73%53.60%55.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.631.721.741.8161.35%58.05%57.47%55.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Grêmio (Visitante)
Predicción 18.82%5.31momio equitativo
EV +3.49%
Ventaja +0.634%
Kelly +0.775%
Crecimiento +0.027%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.58%18.76%18.82%19.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.405.015.005.5022.73%19.95%20.00%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 27.51%3.64momio equitativo
EV -0.422%
Ventaja -0.116%
Kelly -0.161%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.28%27.51%27.59%29.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.383.403.6234.72%29.55%29.41%27.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +3.49%E +0.634%K +0.775%G +0.027% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -0.972%E -0.270%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +3.49%E +0.634%K +0.775%G +0.027% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -0.972%E -0.270%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.03%EV -3.92%E -2.19%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 17.78%EV +2.36%E +0.434%K +0.532%G +0.013% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.20%EV -5.65%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.48%EV -7.68%E -4.46%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.01%EV -0.274%E -0.052%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -0.972%E -0.270%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 17:30 |
| Unibet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.75%E -5.15%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV -0.274%E -0.052%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| betPARX | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.75%E -5.15%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV -0.274%E -0.052%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 23:24 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Casumo | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Bovada | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.66%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Everygame | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.66%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 23:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.27%EV -10.36%E -6.20%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -1.22%E -0.231%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| BetRivers | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.17%EV -8.75%E -5.15%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -2.16%E -0.415%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| FanDuel | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.59%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -2.16%E -0.415%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 23:19 |
| 1xBet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.60%EV -2.85%E -1.57%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.17I 19.34%NM 18.76%EV -2.72%E -0.526%K -0.652%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.64%EV -3.45%E -0.982%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| GTbets | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%EV -5.53%E -3.14%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.50%EV -3.28%E -0.639%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.48%EV -4.82%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 23:05 |
| LeoVegas | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.99%EV -10.36%E -6.20%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -4.04%E -0.792%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -10.90%E -6.56%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.95%EV -4.04%E -0.792%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -10.90%E -6.56%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.95%EV -4.04%E -0.792%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -12.51%E -7.67%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.70%EV -4.04%E -0.792%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -7.85%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -12.51%E -7.67%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.70%EV -4.04%E -0.792%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -7.85%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Fanatics | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.68%EV -6.60%E -3.80%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -0.422%E -0.116%K -0.161%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 23:05 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.68%EV -6.60%E -3.80%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -0.422%E -0.116%K -0.161%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| BetAnything | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.68%EV -6.60%E -3.80%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -0.422%E -0.116%K -0.161%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -6.60%E -3.80%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.49%EV -5.53%E -3.14%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| Bet Victor | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 23:14 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| Betway | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| BetUS | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -8.21%E -4.80%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.72%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.72%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| William Hill | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.72%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 23:09 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.72%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -4.46%E -2.50%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -6.86%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| Betsson | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -4.46%E -2.50%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -6.86%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.26%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.83%EV -6.86%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -8.12%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.14%EV -8.75%E -5.15%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -7.80%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 23:05 |
| Bet Right | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -6.60%E -3.80%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.58%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.07%E -3.47%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| PlayUp | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -4.99%E -2.82%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.95%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.61%EV -10.36%E -6.20%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.85%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.76%EV -10.90%E -6.56%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.79%EV -10.62%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.41%EV -10.36%E -6.20%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -11.56%E -2.46%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.61%EV -11.15%E -3.45%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 23:16 |
| betfred_uk | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -7.14%E -4.13%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -13.45%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -8.75%E -5.15%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -13.45%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.05%EV -10.36%E -6.20%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -13.45%E -2.92%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.26%EV -10.36%E -6.20%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.02%EV -15.33%E -3.41%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.72%EV -20.78%E -7.21%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-05-02 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.66I 60.24%NM 52.96%EV -10.90%E -6.56%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -17.21%E -3.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.05%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.32% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.07% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61% | 0.6% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.45% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.53% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.45% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.53% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.45% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.53% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Kalshi | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.84% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.50% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.20% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.17% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.63% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |