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Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense

2026-08-30 14:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 41.16%2.43fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.28%41.13%41.14%42.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.212.252.3549.26%45.17%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%28.81%28.88%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.203.3334.48%31.55%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.95%3.34fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.01%30.05%29.97%31.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.033.003.2334.48%33.03%33.33%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 41.16%; Fluminense (Visit): 28.89%; Draw: 29.95%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.23, with an expected value of -3.26%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -3.29%E -1.40%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -6.09%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.88%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-17 18:04
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.29%E -1.40%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-17 18:04
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.51%EV -4.93%E -2.13%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.80%EV -3.78%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.69%EV -3.26%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-17 19:04
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.34%E -2.32%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 18:04
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.34%E -2.32%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.16%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.29%EV -6.99%E -3.09%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.38%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%EV -6.55%E -2.10%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-17 19:14
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.40%E -3.29%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.09%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-17 18:54
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.40%E -3.29%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.09%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-17 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.40%E -3.29%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.09%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.40%E -3.29%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.09%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-17 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.15%E -2.31%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-17 18:05
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-17 19:15
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.46%E -4.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-17 18:03
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -11.52%E -5.36%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -16.21%E -5.59%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-17 18:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -13.57%E -6.46%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-17 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.45%EV -15.63%E -7.63%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -11.87%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -10.15%E -3.38%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-17 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.05%EV -15.63%E -7.63%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -11.65%E -3.95%K -5.97%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-17 18:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 42.39%EV -16.45%E -8.11%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 27.94%EV -11.01%E -3.57%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.67%EV -13.14%E -4.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-17 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 40.94%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.29%2.86I 34.97%NM 31.77%10.0%2026-08-17 19:15

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