Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.51
assuming max odds 3.55
assuming max odds 3.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 40.10%; Fluminense (Visit): 29.00%; Draw: 30.90%. For Fluminense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.96%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.01%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.02%EV +2.96%E +0.834%K +1.16%G +0.034% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.97%EV -1.13%E -0.353%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.01%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.02%EV +2.96%E +0.834%K +1.16%G +0.034% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.97%EV -1.13%E -0.353%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.62%EV -2.16%E -0.884%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -2.26%E -0.671%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 13:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 13:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.28%EV -4.96%E -2.09%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.93%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -8.57%E -3.76%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 13:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.85%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -13.78%E -6.41%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.34%EV -14.19%E -6.63%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -14.99%E -7.07%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -14.99%E -7.07%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.17%E -2.63%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -6.61%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -7.62%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 13:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 13:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -9.78%E -3.35%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -9.78%E -3.35%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 13:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.40%E -3.59%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-30 13:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.46%EV -16.59%E -7.98%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -8.85%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.46%EV -16.59%E -7.98%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -8.85%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.59%EV +0.651%E +0.259%K +0.431%G +0.003% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.75%EV -8.64%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.65%EV -2.37%E -0.748%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-30 13:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -8.64%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 13:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 13:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-30 13:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.59%EV -10.98%E -4.94%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 30.34%EV -8.24%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -11.54%E -3.78%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.78%E -5.35%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-30 13:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -11.78%E -5.35%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.40%E -3.59%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10% | 0.5% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18% | 1.8% | 2026-08-30 13:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42% | 2.0% | 2026-08-30 13:20 |