Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-30 14:00 UTC

Score final : Atletico Paranaense 3–3 Fluminense

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prévision 40.10%2.49cote équitable
EV +0.651%
Avantage +0.259%
Kelly +0.431%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 2.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.59%40.15%40.16%43.01%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.082.292.302.5148.08%43.69%43.48%39.84%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Fluminense (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.00%3.45cote équitable
EV +2.96%
Avantage +0.834%
Kelly +1.16%
Croissance +0.034%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.02%28.98%28.96%30.75%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.003.233.203.5533.33%30.96%31.25%28.17%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 30.90%3.24cote équitable
EV -1.13%
Avantage -0.353%
Kelly -0.513%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.73%30.87%30.88%31.72%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.883.023.023.2034.72%33.15%33.06%31.25%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Atletico Paranaense (Local) : 40.10% ; Fluminense (Visiteur) : 29.00% ; Match nul : 30.90%. Pour Fluminense (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.45. 2 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.55, soit une espérance positive de +2.96%.

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.01%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.02%EV +2.96%E +0.834%K +1.16%G +0.034%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.97%EV -1.13%E -0.353%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.01%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.02%EV +2.96%E +0.834%K +1.16%G +0.034%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.97%EV -1.13%E -0.353%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:10
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:10
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:10
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:10
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -1.39%E -0.409%K -0.579%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.62%EV -2.16%E -0.884%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.69%EV -2.26%E -0.671%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.70%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-30 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 13:25
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 13:30
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.84%E -0.848%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 13:25
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.28%EV -4.96%E -2.09%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.93%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 13:45
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 13:44
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 13:04
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 13:35
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -8.57%E -3.76%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.85%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 13:55
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -13.78%E -6.41%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 13:10
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.34%EV -14.19%E -6.63%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -14.99%E -7.07%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -14.99%E -7.07%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 13:10
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 13:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.17%E -2.63%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -6.61%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -7.62%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 13:08
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 13:44
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -9.78%E -3.35%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 13:40
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -9.78%E -3.35%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 13:39
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 13:55
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.40%E -3.59%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 13:40
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 13:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.46%EV -16.59%E -7.98%K -15.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -8.85%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-30 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.46%EV -16.59%E -7.98%K -15.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -8.85%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-30 13:10
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.59%EV +0.651%E +0.259%K +0.431%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.75%EV -8.64%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.65%EV -2.37%E -0.748%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 13:55
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -8.64%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 13:40
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:49
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -4.22%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 13:20
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 13:20
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 13:20
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 13:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 13:35
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.59%EV -10.98%E -4.94%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.34%EV -8.24%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -11.54%E -3.78%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -5.76%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.78%E -5.35%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.31%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 13:10
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.02%E -3.83%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-30 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -11.78%E -5.35%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.40%E -3.59%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-30 13:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.46%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%0.5%2026-08-30 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.6%2026-08-30 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.6%2026-08-30 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.6%2026-08-30 13:45
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18%1.8%2026-08-30 13:35
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.0%2026-08-30 13:20