Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Bragantino-SP

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 21:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bragantino-SP

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 46.64%2.14fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.78%46.59%46.59%48.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.992.002.0853.19%50.24%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 24.24%4.13fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.431%
Kelly +0.566%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.96%24.24%24.37%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.863.804.2028.17%25.93%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.12%3.43fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.818%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.33%29.18%29.04%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3433.33%31.49%31.25%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 46.64%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 24.24%; Draw: 29.12%. For Bragantino-SP (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.78%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV +1.81%E +0.431%K +0.566%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.25%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.78%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV +1.81%E +0.431%K +0.566%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.25%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetUS🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetAnything🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.34%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV -0.371%E -0.090%K -0.119%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.05%EV -2.73%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 21:19
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -0.613%E -0.150%K -0.198%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 18:24
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.55%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.02%EV -2.31%E -0.573%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.43%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:19
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.02%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%EV -8.12%E -4.12%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 20:39
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -11.39%E -5.99%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 12:24
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -4.25%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 21:05
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.90%EV -9.52%E -4.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.77%EV -5.22%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.33%EV -4.48%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:05
Coolbet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.62%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -4.48%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 20:04
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 21:18
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.04%EV -5.95%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -7.39%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.47%EV -5.33%E -2.62%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 21:10
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 21:09
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 20:39
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 20:39
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 21:10
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -10.46%E -5.45%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.18%E -3.66%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -10.46%E -5.45%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.18%E -3.66%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 20:39
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:19
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:19
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -11.86%E -6.27%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -11.86%E -6.27%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 20:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:35
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.51%EV -12.32%E -6.55%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.43%EV -10.79%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 21:09
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 18:34
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 21:14
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 19:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.36%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 21:10
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 21:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -9.52%E -4.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-08-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:25
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-08-15 21:19
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.61%3.39I 29.50%NM 29.05%1.6%2026-08-15 21:19

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