The School of Odds
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Atletico Paranaense v Bragantino-SP

2026-08-15 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 45.17%2.21fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.26%45.19%45.07%46.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.032.052.1153.48%49.37%48.78%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 26.42%3.78fair odd
EV -0.921%
Edge -0.246%
Kelly -0.335%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.35%26.36%26.49%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.493.503.7531.25%28.69%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.40%3.52fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.85%28.46%28.44%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.243.4033.33%31.18%30.91%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 45.17%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 26.42%; Draw: 28.40%. For Bragantino-SP (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.75, with an expected value of -0.921%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.11I 47.39%NM 45.45%EV -4.68%E -2.22%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV -0.921%E -0.246%K -0.335%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.97%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 14:20
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -5.13%E -2.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 12:54
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -5.13%E -2.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.88%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 12:55
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.13%E -2.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 12:55
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.13%E -2.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.27%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 13:20
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.04%E -2.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -8.85%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -4.85%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 13:00
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.04%E -2.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -8.85%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -4.85%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 12:59
Marathon Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.49%EV -7.39%E -3.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -3.56%E -0.976%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -8.54%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 14:15
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.39%E -3.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.27%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 12:54
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.39%E -3.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.95%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 13:54
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.39%E -3.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.95%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 13:54
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.39%E -3.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.95%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 13:55
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.39%E -3.61%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.95%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 13:55
Codere (IT)2.01I 49.75%NM 46.10%EV -9.20%E -4.58%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -3.56%E -0.976%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -7.69%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 14:55
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.65%E -4.83%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.69%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 12:55
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 44.26%EV -11.91%E -6.11%K -12.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.97%EV -15.45%E -4.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.77%EV -14.79%E -4.93%K -7.39%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-02 12:54
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 45.82%EV -13.26%E -6.91%K -14.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.93%EV -10.53%E -3.34%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-02 14:55
Unibet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.49%EV -13.72%E -7.18%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -14.79%E -4.93%K -7.39%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-02 14:54
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 45.74%EV -15.07%E -8.02%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.06%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.20%EV -13.37%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-02 14:55
Betclic (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 46.10%EV -15.52%E -8.30%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.35%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 28.55%EV -14.22%E -4.71%K -7.04%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 14:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 45.36%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.92%16.0%2026-08-02 14:55