Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Paranaense v Bragantino-SP

Inicio: 2026-08-15 21:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bragantino-SP

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Predicción 46.64%2.14momio equitativo
EV -2.99%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -2.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.78%46.59%46.59%48.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.881.992.002.0853.19%50.24%50.00%48.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bragantino-SP (Visitante)

Predicción 24.24%4.13momio equitativo
EV +1.81%
Ventaja +0.431%
Kelly +0.566%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.96%24.24%24.37%25.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.863.804.2028.17%25.93%26.32%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.12%3.43momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -0.818%
Kelly -1.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.33%29.18%29.04%30.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.183.203.3433.33%31.49%31.25%29.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 46.64%; Bragantino-SP (Visitante): 24.24%; Empate: 29.12%. Para Bragantino-SP (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.13. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.81%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.78%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV +1.81%E +0.431%K +0.566%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.25%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.78%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV +1.81%E +0.431%K +0.566%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.25%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetUS🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetAnything🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.34%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV -0.371%E -0.090%K -0.119%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.05%EV -2.73%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 21:19
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -0.613%E -0.150%K -0.198%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 18:24
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.55%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.02%EV -2.31%E -0.573%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.43%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:19
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.02%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%EV -8.12%E -4.12%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 20:39
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -11.39%E -5.99%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 12:24
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -4.25%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 21:05
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.90%EV -9.52%E -4.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.77%EV -5.22%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.33%EV -4.48%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:05
Coolbet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.62%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -4.48%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 20:04
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 21:18
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.04%EV -5.95%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -7.39%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.47%EV -5.33%E -2.62%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 21:10
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 21:09
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 20:39
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 20:39
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 21:10
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -10.46%E -5.45%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.18%E -3.66%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -10.46%E -5.45%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.18%E -3.66%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 20:39
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:19
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:19
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -11.86%E -6.27%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -11.86%E -6.27%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 20:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:35
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.51%EV -12.32%E -6.55%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.43%EV -10.79%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 21:09
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 18:34
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 21:14
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 19:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.36%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 21:10
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 21:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -9.52%E -4.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-08-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:25
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-08-15 21:19
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.61%3.39I 29.50%NM 29.05%1.6%2026-08-15 21:19