Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Paranaense v Bragantino-SP

Início: 2026-08-15 21:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bragantino-SP

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Previsão 46.64%2.14odd justa
EV -2.99%
Vantagem -1.44%
Kelly -2.77%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.08

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
44.78%46.59%46.59%48.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.881.992.002.0853.19%50.24%50.00%48.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bragantino-SP (Visitante)

Previsão 24.24%4.13odd justa
EV +1.81%
Vantagem +0.431%
Kelly +0.566%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.96%24.24%24.37%25.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.553.863.804.2028.17%25.93%26.32%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.12%3.43odd justa
EV -2.73%
Vantagem -0.818%
Kelly -1.17%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.34

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.33%29.18%29.04%30.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.183.203.3433.33%31.49%31.25%29.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 46.64%; Bragantino-SP (Visitante): 24.24%; Empate: 29.12%. Para Bragantino-SP (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.13. 6 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.20, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.81%.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.78%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV +1.81%E +0.431%K +0.566%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.25%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.78%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV +1.81%E +0.431%K +0.566%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.25%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 20:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetUS🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
BetAnything🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.34%EV +0.356%E +0.086%K +0.113%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:09
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.34%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV -0.371%E -0.090%K -0.119%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.05%EV -2.73%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 21:19
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -0.613%E -0.150%K -0.198%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 18:24
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.55%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.02%EV -2.31%E -0.573%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.43%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:19
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.02%EV -5.79%E -2.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%EV -8.12%E -4.12%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 20:39
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 20:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -11.39%E -5.99%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 12:24
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -4.25%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 21:05
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.90%EV -9.52%E -4.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.77%EV -5.22%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.33%EV -4.48%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:05
Coolbet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.62%EV -4.86%E -2.38%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -4.48%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 20:04
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 21:18
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.04%EV -5.95%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -7.39%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 21:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.47%EV -5.33%E -2.62%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 21:10
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 21:09
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 20:39
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 20:39
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 21:10
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 21:04
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -10.46%E -5.45%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.18%E -3.66%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -10.46%E -5.45%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.89%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.18%E -3.66%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 20:39
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:19
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.35%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 21:19
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -9.06%E -4.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -11.86%E -6.27%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -11.86%E -6.27%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 20:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:35
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.99%E -1.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 21:14
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.51%EV -12.32%E -6.55%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -9.99%E -5.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.43%EV -10.79%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 21:09
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 18:34
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 21:14
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -6.73%E -3.36%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 19:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.36%EV -8.59%E -4.38%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 21:10
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -12.63%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 21:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.25%EV -9.52%E -4.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -13.95%E -3.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.48%EV -8.26%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-08-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-08-15 21:25
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-08-15 21:19
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.61%3.39I 29.50%NM 29.05%1.6%2026-08-15 21:19