Language:English
Atletico Paranaense v Bahia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Prediction 40.03%2.50fair odd
EV +0.079%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.052%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.39%40.10%40.00%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.5046.51%43.50%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bahia (Visit)
Prediction 31.45%3.18fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.679%
Kelly +0.981%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.74%31.34%31.46%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.002.973.2536.36%33.34%33.67%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.52%3.51fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.892%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.33%28.56%28.54%30.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.293.4033.33%30.74%30.40%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 40.03%; Bahia (Visit): 31.45%; Draw: 28.52%. For Bahia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 14:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 14:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.75%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.01%EV +0.635%E +0.199%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.75%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.01%EV +0.635%E +0.199%K +0.289%G +0.002% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.12%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.42%EV -1.57%E -0.500%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.82%EV -2.72%E -1.12%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.12%EV -2.19%E -0.706%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.06%EV -5.03%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-20 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 21:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 21:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 22:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.73%EV -2.82%E -0.914%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.86%EV -6.17%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 21:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -11.93%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -4.08%E -1.34%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 21:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.33%EV -6.60%E -2.22%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 22:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.39%EV +0.079%E +0.031%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.53%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.08%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 22:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -3.92%E -1.64%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 21:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.83%EV -5.13%E -2.16%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 21:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 22:03 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 21:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 22:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.00%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-20 22:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 21:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-20 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 22:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 22:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 22:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 22:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 22:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -11.93%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 19:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-20 22:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -14.44%E -4.81%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-20 22:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.43%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 22:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.43%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 22:18 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -9.43%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 21:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-20 21:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -13.93%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-20 21:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -11.94%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 21:48 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.28%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 31.58%EV -12.57%E -4.52%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.14%EV -11.02%E -3.53%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-20 22:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -11.93%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -13.52%E -4.92%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-20 21:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.47I 40.49%NM 40.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.83% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.86% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-09-20 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48% | 1.3% | 2026-09-20 22:25 |