Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Atletico Paranaense v Bahia

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-20 22:30 UTC

Score final : Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prévision 40.03%2.50cote équitable
EV +0.079%
Avantage +0.031%
Kelly +0.052%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.39%40.10%40.00%41.84%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.152.302.302.5046.51%43.50%43.48%40.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Bahia (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.45%3.18cote équitable
EV +2.21%
Avantage +0.679%
Kelly +0.981%
Croissance +0.022%

avec la cote maximale 3.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.74%31.34%31.46%32.71%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.753.002.973.2536.36%33.34%33.67%30.77%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 28.52%3.51cote équitable
EV -3.03%
Avantage -0.892%
Kelly -1.26%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.33%28.56%28.54%30.23%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.003.253.293.4033.33%30.74%30.40%29.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Atletico Paranaense (Local) : 40.03% ; Bahia (Visiteur) : 31.45% ; Match nul : 28.52%. Pour Bahia (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.18. 6 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.25, soit une espérance positive de +2.21%.

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 14:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 14:19
BetUS🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 14:24
BetAnything🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -7.53%E -3.26%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV +2.21%E +0.679%K +0.981%G +0.022%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 14:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.75%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.01%EV +0.635%E +0.199%K +0.289%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 22:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.75%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.01%EV +0.635%E +0.199%K +0.289%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 22:14
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.12%E -1.29%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.42%EV -1.57%E -0.500%K -0.735%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 22:04
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.82%EV -2.72%E -1.12%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.12%EV -2.19%E -0.706%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.06%EV -5.03%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 22:15
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 21:34
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 21:39
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 22:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 22:14
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 22:14
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 22:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 22:15
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 22:15
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.51%E -0.809%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 22:14
GTbets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.73%EV -2.82%E -0.914%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.86%EV -6.17%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 21:54
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -11.93%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -4.08%E -1.34%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 22:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 21:49
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 22:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 22:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 22:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 22:14
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 22:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.16%E -3.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 22:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.33%EV -6.60%E -2.22%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 22:19
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.39%EV +0.079%E +0.031%K +0.052%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.53%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.08%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 22:19
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -3.92%E -1.64%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 21:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.83%EV -5.13%E -2.16%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 21:49
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 22:03
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.46%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 21:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 22:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 22:04
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.00%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 22:24
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -7.13%E -3.07%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -7.23%E -2.45%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 21:19
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 22:14
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -5.93%E -2.52%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 22:24
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 22:20
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 22:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 22:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 22:20
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -11.93%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 19:34
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -11.59%E -3.74%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 22:09
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -8.80%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -14.44%E -4.81%K -7.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 22:09
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.43%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 22:19
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.73%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.43%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.03%E -0.892%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 22:18
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -9.43%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 21:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.93%E -3.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 21:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -13.93%E -6.48%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -8.74%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 21:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -9.93%E -4.41%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -11.94%E -4.27%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -5.88%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 21:48
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.28%EV -12.73%E -5.84%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.58%EV -12.57%E -4.52%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.14%EV -11.02%E -3.53%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-20 22:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -11.93%E -5.42%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -13.52%E -4.92%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -7.31%E -2.25%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 21:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎2.47I 40.49%NM 40.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.83%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.86%0.4%2026-09-20 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-20 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-20 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-20 22:25
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-09-20 22:25
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48%1.3%2026-09-20 22:25