Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Mineiro v Flamengo

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 25.16%3.97fair odd
EV +0.647%
Edge +0.162%
Kelly +0.216%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.03%25.17%25.26%26.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.713.704.0030.77%26.97%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 46.62%2.14fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.40%46.59%46.57%47.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.992.002.0953.76%50.27%50.00%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.21%3.54fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.24%28.17%29.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.273.303.4032.79%30.57%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Mineiro (Local): 25.16%; Flamengo (Visit): 46.62%; Draw: 28.21%. For Atletico Mineiro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.647%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV +0.647%E +0.162%K +0.216%G +0.001%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 01:35
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV +0.647%E +0.162%K +0.216%G +0.001%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 01:35
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -1.87%E -0.479%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.45%EV -7.68%E -3.88%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.87%E -0.479%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -8.15%E -4.14%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 01:35
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.87%E -0.479%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -8.15%E -4.14%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 01:34
Grosvenor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.87%E -0.479%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -8.15%E -4.14%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 01:35
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.87%E -0.479%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -8.15%E -4.14%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 01:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.87%E -0.479%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -8.15%E -4.14%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 01:35
1xBet🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.70%EV -2.12%E -0.545%K -0.734%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.87%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.43%EV -4.64%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-23 15:34
GTbets🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.60%EV -2.12%E -0.545%K -0.734%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.78%EV -2.56%E -1.22%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.62%EV -8.87%E -2.75%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 15:29
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -3.13%E -0.812%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.42%EV -8.15%E -4.14%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 01:35
Pinnacle🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.81%EV -3.38%E -0.880%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.17%EV -5.82%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 00:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.79%EV -3.38%E -0.880%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.13%EV -5.82%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.08%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 14:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.79%EV -3.38%E -0.880%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.13%EV -5.82%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.08%EV -4.35%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-20 14:54
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-20 07:05
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -9.08%E -4.66%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 06:43
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.45%EV -9.55%E -4.92%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 01:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.08%E -4.66%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 23:54
LeoVegas🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -4.39%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.58%EV -10.02%E -5.19%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-21 01:34
Marathon Bet🎯3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.88%EV -7.22%E -3.63%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -7.46%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 15:29
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -5.82%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 23:30
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -5.48%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-20 00:46
BetUS🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -5.48%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 02:20
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -10.48%E -5.46%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 01:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -10.48%E -5.46%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 01:35
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-20 09:54
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-20 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 12:30
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-20 16:34
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 12:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -5.82%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 23:34
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.48%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 23:34
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -7.68%E -3.88%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -5.48%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 00:45
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -7.68%E -3.88%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -5.48%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.24%EV -11.41%E -6.01%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.50%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-21 01:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -6.90%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.24%EV -11.41%E -6.01%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.50%EV -11.13%E -3.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-21 01:35
Everygame🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -8.16%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -9.08%E -4.66%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-20 05:45
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.42%E -2.16%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 09:55
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.07%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:00
Bet Right🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 23:44
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 23:40
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.51%EV -7.68%E -3.88%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 23:35
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 00:45
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 00:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 00:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.42%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 00:45
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.93%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.89%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-21 23:35
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.93%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 22:43
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.93%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.75%E -3.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.30%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 25.23%EV -12.44%E -3.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.45%EV -11.88%E -6.29%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-21 18:58
Unibet (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.19%E -3.82%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.35%EV -11.88%E -6.29%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-21 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.45%E -4.25%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.20%EV -10.48%E -5.46%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-21 19:00
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.45%E -4.25%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.08%E -4.66%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.54%E -4.04%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 23:33
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.23%EV -18.22%E -5.61%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 45.83%EV -13.28%E -7.14%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.95%EV -13.95%E -4.57%K -6.80%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-21 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-04-23 19:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.72%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%3.7%2026-04-23 23:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.72%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%3.7%2026-04-23 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.72%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%3.7%2026-04-23 23:55
Matchbook3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%6.5%2026-04-24 01:30
Smarkets3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.16%9.3%2026-04-23 23:54