Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.31
assuming max odds 12.00
assuming max odds 6.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 73.06%; Dender (Visit): 9.07%; Draw: 17.88%. For Dender (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.03. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.78%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.87%E -8.91%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +8.78%E +0.732%K +0.798%G +0.070% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV +7.27%E +1.21%K +1.45%G +0.106% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.54%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.74%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.72%EV +2.80%E +0.487%K +0.589%G +0.016% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.54%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.74%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.72%EV +2.80%E +0.487%K +0.589%G +0.016% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.49%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.36%EV +4.25%E +0.369%K +0.405%G +0.017% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +0.117%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.49%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.36%EV +4.25%E +0.369%K +0.405%G +0.017% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +0.117%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.65%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.99I 8.34%NM 8.03%EV +8.69%E +0.725%K +0.791%G +0.069% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.32%EV -0.598%E -0.108%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.86%EV -4.30%E -3.28%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.79%EV -11.62%E -1.19%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.12%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.25%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.12%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.25%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -13.88%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -13.88%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 16:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 16:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -7.22%E -5.68%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -7.22%E -5.68%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -7.22%E -5.68%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.42%EV -7.95%E -6.31%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -1.67%E -0.304%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.86%EV -4.30%E -3.28%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +4.25%E +0.369%K +0.405%G +0.017% | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.72%EV -2.39%E -0.437%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.19%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -18.41%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -3.46%E -0.640%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.34%EV -8.68%E -6.94%K -34.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -3.46%E -0.640%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 17:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.34%EV -8.68%E -6.94%K -34.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -3.46%E -0.640%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.34%EV -8.68%E -6.94%K -34.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.21%EV -3.46%E -0.640%K -0.786%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.47%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.58%EV -4.35%E -0.813%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.47%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.58%EV -4.35%E -0.813%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.46%EV -7.22%E -5.68%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.10%EV -7.08%E -0.691%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.44%EV -4.35%E -0.813%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.96%EV -9.41%E -7.59%K -39.21%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.30%EV -5.25%E -0.990%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.99%EV -7.22%E -5.68%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -22.95%E -2.70%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.25%EV -5.25%E -0.990%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.37%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 17:08 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 16:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -7.03%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 17:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -7.03%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -7.03%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.03%EV -10.87%E -8.91%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -7.03%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.03%EV -10.87%E -8.91%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -7.03%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.29%EV -7.22%E -5.68%K -26.73%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -8.82%E -1.73%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.03%E -3.87%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -4.82%E -0.459%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-14 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.71%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 16:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.87%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.87%EV -6.49%E -5.07%K -23.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -0.284%E -0.026%K -0.028%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -10.87%E -8.91%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -13.88%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.86%EV -13.79%E -11.69%K -76.63%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.71%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.86%EV -13.79%E -11.69%K -76.63%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.71%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 70.77%EV -9.41%E -7.59%K -39.21%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.32%EV -29.75%E -3.84%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.32%EV -8.68%E -6.94%K -34.72%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.64%EV -13.29%E -2.74%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.40%EV -8.68%E -6.94%K -34.72%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.20%EV -20.68%E -2.36%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.40%EV -13.29%E -2.74%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.72%EV -10.87%E -8.91%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.06%EV -21.13%E -2.43%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.23%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.40%EV -5.76%E -4.46%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -15.08%E -3.17%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.87%EV -10.87%E -8.91%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.48%EV -16.15%E -1.75%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.65%EV -15.97%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 72.62%EV -14.52%E -12.41%K -85.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.50%EV -9.35%E -0.935%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.88%EV -19.55%E -4.34%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-03-14 17:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.22% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 16:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.05% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45% | 1.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.05% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45% | 1.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.05% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45% | 1.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.05% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45% | 1.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.44% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.25% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.31% | 2.2% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |