Language:English
KV Mechelen v Sint Truiden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
KV Mechelen (Local)
Prediction 30.95%3.23fair odd
EV -0.976%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.443%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.78%30.85%30.94%32.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.003.003.2037.04%33.31%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sint Truiden (Visit)
Prediction 42.76%2.34fair odd
EV -4.64%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%42.80%42.79%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.2350.00%46.65%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.29%3.80fair odd
EV -0.082%
Edge -0.022%
Kelly -0.029%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.36%26.26%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.603.8030.30%28.25%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KV Mechelen (Local): 30.95%; Sint Truiden (Visit): 42.76%; Draw: 26.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.803. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.800, with an expected value of -0.082%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -0.976%E -0.305%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -0.082%E -0.022%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -0.976%E -0.305%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -0.082%E -0.022%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -2.52%E -0.801%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.06%EV -7.64%E -3.54%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -2.52%E -0.801%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.06%EV -7.64%E -3.54%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -2.52%E -0.801%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -2.52%E -0.801%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.42%EV -3.14%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.69%EV -4.64%E -2.08%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.89%EV -6.92%E -1.95%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 19:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 19:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%EV -8.49%E -3.97%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%EV -8.49%E -3.97%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%EV -8.49%E -3.97%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 19:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 19:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -9.35%E -4.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -9.35%E -4.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -9.35%E -4.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -9.35%E -4.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.89%EV -4.38%E -1.42%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.38%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.73%EV -2.45%E -0.660%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.28%E -2.69%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 20:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.31%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.55%E -2.17%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.76%EV -4.81%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 20:29 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.01I 33.22%NM 30.50%EV -6.86%E -2.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.50%EV -7.64%E -3.54%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-24 03:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 22:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.62%EV -5.07%E -2.28%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -11.91%E -3.56%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 19:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.62%EV -5.07%E -2.28%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -11.91%E -3.56%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 19:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.99%EV -11.49%E -5.55%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -12.34%E -6.02%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -12.34%E -6.02%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 19:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 19:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.93%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 19:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -13.23%E -4.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 20:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.94%EV -11.06%E -5.32%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-23 20:23 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.88%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 19:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.88%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-24 02:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.81%E -4.14%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.79%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.98%EV -11.81%E -4.14%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -11.49%E -5.55%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -11.91%E -3.56%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-23 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 19:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-23 19:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -14.90%E -5.42%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -12.34%E -6.02%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-23 19:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -16.45%E -6.09%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.78%EV -14.48%E -7.24%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.54%EV -11.91%E -3.56%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-04-23 20:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.12% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.54% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33% | 6.0% | 2026-04-24 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.90% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.16% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93% | 10.8% | 2026-04-23 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 18.03% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 40.98% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 40.98% | 84.8% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 18.03% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 40.98% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 40.98% | 84.8% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 18.03% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 40.98% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 40.98% | 84.8% | 2026-04-23 22:10 |