Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge v Genk

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:30 UTC

Final: Club Brugge 3–0 Genk

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge (Local)

Prediction 63.01%1.59fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -5.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.74%62.91%62.95%64.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.471.471.5472.46%67.97%68.03%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Genk (Visit)

Prediction 16.83%5.94fair odd
EV +2.97%
Edge +0.486%
Kelly +0.580%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 6.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.77%16.86%16.96%18.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.475.506.1220.00%18.29%18.18%16.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.16%4.96fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.244%
Kelly -0.306%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.22%20.23%20.09%21.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.504.9023.81%21.95%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Brugge (Local): 63.01%; Genk (Visit): 16.83%; Draw: 20.16%. For Genk (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.94. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.36%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.77%EV +2.97%E +0.486%K +0.580%G +0.017%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.86%EV -2.00%E -0.412%K -0.518%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-20 16:20
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.24%EV -2.96%E -1.92%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.04I 16.56%NM 15.87%EV +1.63%E +0.269%K +0.322%G +0.005%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.89%EV -11.68%E -2.67%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 16:24
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.91%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.53%EV -2.41%E -0.416%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.56%EV -1.19%E -0.244%K -0.306%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 16:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.91%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.53%EV -2.41%E -0.416%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.56%EV -1.19%E -0.244%K -0.306%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.91%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.53%EV -2.41%E -0.416%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.56%EV -1.19%E -0.244%K -0.306%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 16:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.43%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -2.41%E -0.416%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.21%E -0.669%K -0.845%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 16:09
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.21%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -2.41%E -0.416%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -13.29%E -3.09%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:09
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.21%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -2.41%E -0.416%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -13.29%E -3.09%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:09
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 16:24
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.29%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.51%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -6.74%E -4.56%K -14.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 16:15
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.89%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 16:15
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -11.28%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 16:29
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 16:27
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.25%E -0.566%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 16:27
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.30%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.47%EV -4.94%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 16:24
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.89%EV -6.11%E -4.10%K -12.48%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -5.78%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 16:29
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -5.78%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -5.78%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -5.78%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -5.78%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
Suprabets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.37%EV -8.01%E -5.48%K -17.40%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.52%EV -5.78%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 16:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -3.59%E -2.35%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -7.46%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 16:09
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -3.59%E -2.35%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -7.46%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 16:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -6.74%E -4.56%K -14.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -7.46%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 16:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.37%E -5.02%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -7.46%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.22%E -0.888%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 16:14
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.27%E -6.43%K -21.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -7.46%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:14
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -11.79%E -8.42%K -29.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -7.46%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -11.28%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.91%EV -4.85%E -3.21%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.14%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 16:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.91%EV -4.85%E -3.21%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.14%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 16:24
BetAnything🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.91%EV -4.85%E -3.21%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -9.14%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 16:24
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.43%EV -13.05%E -9.45%K -34.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.21%EV -9.14%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.36%EV -13.29%E -3.09%K -4.03%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-20 16:19
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.83%EV -9.27%E -6.43%K -21.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -10.83%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.83%EV -9.27%E -6.43%K -21.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -10.83%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%EV -11.79%E -8.42%K -29.46%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -10.83%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -3.59%E -2.35%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 16:09
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.56%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 16:29
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.56%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 16:21
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -6.74%E -4.56%K -14.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -15.31%E -3.65%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 16:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -9.90%E -6.92%K -23.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -11.28%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 16:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -9.90%E -6.92%K -23.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -11.28%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -9.90%E -6.92%K -23.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.35%EV -11.28%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 16:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.91%EV -10.53%E -7.41%K -25.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.02%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.07%EV -10.27%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.89%EV -11.79%E -8.42%K -29.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.77%EV -11.67%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -12.69%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-20 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.35%EV -4.22%E -2.78%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -12.51%E -2.41%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.90%EV -9.90%E -6.92%K -23.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.02%EV -12.51%E -2.41%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -15.31%E -3.65%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-20 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.78%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -14.19%E -2.78%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:14
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -15.87%E -3.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -12.69%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:09
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -15.87%E -3.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -12.69%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -15.87%E -3.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -12.69%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -5.48%E -3.66%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -15.87%E -3.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -12.69%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.27%E -6.43%K -21.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -15.87%E -3.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.22%EV -5.23%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 16:13
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.27%E -6.43%K -21.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.87%E -3.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 16:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.58%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%1.0%2026-09-20 16:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.58%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42%1.0%2026-09-20 16:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.12%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%1.0%2026-09-20 16:30
Matchbook◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.73%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.94%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%1.4%2026-09-20 16:29
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%1.8%2026-09-20 16:14
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.02%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64%1.9%2026-09-20 16:20