Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge KSV

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:30 UTC

Final: Club Brugge 1–0 Cercle Brugge KSV

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge (Local)

Prediction 75.02%1.33fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -17.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.01%75.00%74.88%77.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.231.241.2785.47%81.18%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cercle Brugge KSV (Visit)

Prediction 9.70%10.31fair odd
EV +21.22%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.392%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.50%9.64%9.68%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.809.5012.5012.50%10.21%10.53%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.28%6.54fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.358%
Kelly +0.421%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 6.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.89%15.36%15.45%18.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.006.006.7019.23%16.68%16.67%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Brugge (Local): 75.02%; Cercle Brugge KSV (Visit): 9.70%; Draw: 15.28%. For Cercle Brugge KSV (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.31. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -5.48%E -4.35%K -21.06%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +21.22%E +1.70%K +1.85%G +0.392%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -20.53%E -3.95%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:24
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.58%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.95%EV +18.31%E +1.50%K +1.64%G +0.299%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.47%EV +2.40%E +0.358%K +0.421%G +0.010%3.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.10%EV -5.48%E -4.35%K -21.06%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV +11.53%E +1.00%K +1.10%G +0.127%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -19.76%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.11%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 15:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.11%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 15:39
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -4.48%E -0.717%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 16:24
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 16:23
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 16:23
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.66%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.95I 9.13%NM 8.75%EV +6.19%E +0.565%K +0.622%G +0.039%6.57I 15.22%NM 14.59%EV +0.411%E +0.063%K +0.074%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-23 16:20
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 16:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.47%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -4.48%E -0.717%K -0.853%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 16:09
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 16:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 16:09
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:09
Suprabets🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.68%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.01%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 16:04
BetUS🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:04
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -12.23%E -10.45%K -71.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 16:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.61%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.71%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.67%EV -9.06%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.39%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.66%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.39%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.66%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:24
BetAnything🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.39%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.66%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:09
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:24
theScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.31%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.89%EV +2.40%E +0.358%K +0.421%G +0.010%7.4%2026-08-23 16:04
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 16:09
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.44%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 15:39
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -19.76%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:24
TABtouch🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -9.23%E -7.63%K -43.94%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -14.41%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 16:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -12.23%E -10.45%K -71.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 16:19
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.67%EV -12.23%E -10.45%K -71.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.32%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.01%EV -9.83%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-23 16:14
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.30%EV -10.30%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 16:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.36%EV -10.73%E -9.01%K -56.46%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.69%EV -10.30%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.95%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 16:24
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:04
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:03
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 16:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -14.41%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 15:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -14.41%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.73%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.68%EV -15.14%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.83%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -15.14%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.32%EV -10.73%E -9.01%K -56.46%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.17%EV -15.63%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.52%EV -12.89%E -2.26%K -2.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.70%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -17.57%E -2.07%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -4.48%E -0.717%K -0.853%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.07%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -22.42%E -2.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.29I 77.52%NM 77.35%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.67%0.2%2026-08-23 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-08-23 16:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-08-23 16:19
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-08-23 16:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.62%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50%1.4%2026-08-23 16:20
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74%1.7%2026-08-23 16:20