Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge KSV

Inicio: 2026-08-23 16:30 UTC

Final: Club Brugge 1–0 Cercle Brugge KSV

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Club Brugge (Local)

Predicción 75.02%1.33momio equitativo
EV -4.73%
Ventaja -3.72%
Kelly -17.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.01%75.00%74.88%77.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.171.231.241.2785.47%81.18%80.65%78.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cercle Brugge KSV (Visitante)

Predicción 9.70%10.31momio equitativo
EV +21.22%
Ventaja +1.70%
Kelly +1.85%
Crecimiento +0.392%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.50%9.64%9.68%11.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.809.5012.5012.50%10.21%10.53%8.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 15.28%6.54momio equitativo
EV +2.40%
Ventaja +0.358%
Kelly +0.421%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.89%15.36%15.45%18.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.206.006.006.7019.23%16.68%16.67%14.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Club Brugge (Local): 75.02%; Cercle Brugge KSV (Visitante): 9.70%; Empate: 15.28%. Para Cercle Brugge KSV (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.31. 13 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 12.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +21.22%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -5.48%E -4.35%K -21.06%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +21.22%E +1.70%K +1.85%G +0.392%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -20.53%E -3.95%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:24
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.58%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.95%EV +18.31%E +1.50%K +1.64%G +0.299%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.47%EV +2.40%E +0.358%K +0.421%G +0.010%3.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.10%EV -5.48%E -4.35%K -21.06%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV +11.53%E +1.00%K +1.10%G +0.127%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -19.76%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.11%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 15:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.11%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 15:39
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -4.48%E -0.717%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 16:24
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 16:23
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +6.68%E +0.607%K +0.668%G +0.045%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 16:23
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.66%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.95I 9.13%NM 8.75%EV +6.19%E +0.565%K +0.622%G +0.039%6.57I 15.22%NM 14.59%EV +0.411%E +0.063%K +0.074%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-23 16:20
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.83%E +0.174%K +0.192%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 16:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.47%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -4.48%E -0.717%K -0.853%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 16:09
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 16:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 16:09
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.98%E -5.63%K -29.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:09
Suprabets🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.68%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.01%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 16:04
BetUS🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:04
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -12.23%E -10.45%K -71.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -3.02%E -0.302%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 16:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.61%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.71%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.67%EV -9.06%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.39%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.66%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.39%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.66%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:24
BetAnything🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.39%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.66%EV -6.90%E -0.719%K -0.802%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.96%EV -5.24%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:09
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:24
theScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.31%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.89%EV +2.40%E +0.358%K +0.421%G +0.010%7.4%2026-08-23 16:04
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 16:09
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.44%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 15:39
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -19.76%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:24
TABtouch🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -9.23%E -7.63%K -43.94%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -14.41%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 16:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.86%EV -12.23%E -10.45%K -71.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 16:19
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.67%EV -12.23%E -10.45%K -71.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.32%EV -7.87%E -0.828%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.01%EV -9.83%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-23 16:14
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.30%EV -10.30%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 16:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.36%EV -10.73%E -9.01%K -56.46%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.69%EV -10.30%E -1.11%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.95%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.659%E -0.101%K -0.120%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 16:24
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:04
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:03
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 16:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -14.41%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 15:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -12.72%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -14.41%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.73%EV -6.23%E -4.98%K -24.91%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.68%EV -15.14%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.83%EV -7.73%E -6.28%K -33.59%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -15.14%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.32%EV -10.73%E -9.01%K -56.46%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.17%EV -15.63%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.52%EV -12.89%E -2.26%K -2.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-23 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.70%EV -8.48%E -6.95%K -38.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -17.57%E -2.07%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -4.48%E -0.717%K -0.853%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.07%EV -9.98%E -8.31%K -49.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -22.42%E -2.80%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 16:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.35%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.67%0.2%2026-08-23 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-08-23 16:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-08-23 16:19
Smarkets◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-08-23 16:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.62%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50%1.4%2026-08-23 16:20
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74%1.7%2026-08-23 16:20