The School of Odds

WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz

2026-08-01 15:00 — Austrian Football Bundesliga

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: WSG Tirol (Local)

Odds
2.5040.00%Min
2.6937.20%Mean
2.7536.36%Median
2.8535.09%Max
Consensus probabilities
32.88%3.042Min
34.11%2.932Max
33.47%2.988Mean
33.32%3.001Median
33.43%2.991IQM
33.56%2.980Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.85 under the IQM model: 33.43%

EV -4.72%Edge -1.66%Kelly -2.55%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Sturm Graz (Visit)

Odds
2.1047.62%Min
2.2644.27%Mean
2.2644.25%Median
2.4041.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
39.09%2.558Min
40.45%2.472Max
39.80%2.513Mean
39.84%2.510Median
39.81%2.512IQM
39.69%2.520Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.40 under the IQM model: 39.81%

EV -4.46%Edge -1.86%Kelly -3.19%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.2031.25%Min
3.3629.72%Mean
3.3529.85%Median
3.5028.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.29%3.804Min
27.13%3.685Max
26.74%3.740Mean
26.83%3.727Median
26.76%3.736IQM
26.76%3.738Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 26.76%

EV -6.33%Edge -1.81%Kelly -2.53%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

BookmakerWSG Tirol (Local) ▼Sturm Graz (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.85I 35.09% NM 32.88%EV -4.72% E -1.66% K -2.55% G +0.000%2.34I 42.74% NM 40.04%EV -6.85% E -2.93% K -5.11% G +0.000%3.46I 28.90% NM 27.08%EV -7.40% E -2.14% K -3.01% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 22:40
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71% NM 33.71%EV -6.40% E -2.28% K -3.55% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 39.33%EV -4.46% E -1.86% K -3.19% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -6.33% E -1.81% K -2.53% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-02 04:53
Coolbet2.75I 36.36% NM 34.11%EV -8.07% E -2.93% K -4.61% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 39.09%EV -4.46% E -1.86% K -3.19% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.80%EV -6.33% E -1.81% K -2.53% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-03 07:35
FanDuel2.75I 36.36% NM 33.83%EV -8.07% E -2.93% K -4.61% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 39.59%EV -6.45% E -2.75% K -4.78% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.58%EV -6.33% E -1.81% K -2.53% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-02 04:58
Fanatics2.75I 36.36% NM 33.28%EV -8.07% E -2.93% K -4.61% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 39.80%EV -8.44% E -3.67% K -6.50% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -9.01% E -2.65% K -3.75% G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-03 00:14
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36% NM 32.92%EV -8.07% E -2.93% K -4.61% G +0.000%2.26I 44.25% NM 40.06%EV -10.04% E -4.44% K -7.97% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.02%EV -10.34% E -3.09% K -4.40% G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-04 22:40
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17% NM 33.19%EV -12.41% E -4.74% K -7.66% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 40.45%EV -14.42% E -6.70% K -12.54% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 26.35%EV -11.68% E -3.54% K -5.08% G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-05 06:30
SportsBet2.60I 38.46% NM 33.67%EV -13.08% E -5.03% K -8.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 39.80%EV -12.43% E -5.65% K -10.35% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 26.53%EV -11.68% E -3.54% K -5.08% G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-02 04:54
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46% NM 33.40%EV -13.08% E -5.03% K -8.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 39.47%EV -12.43% E -5.65% K -10.35% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.13%EV -14.36% E -4.49% K -6.53% G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-02 04:54
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46% NM 33.36%EV -13.08% E -5.03% K -8.18% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 40.35%EV -14.42% E -6.70% K -12.54% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 26.29%EV -11.68% E -3.54% K -5.08% G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-04 22:50
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00% NM 33.65%EV -16.42% E -6.57% K -10.95% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 40.06%EV -16.41% E -7.81% K -14.91% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 26.29%EV -14.36% E -4.49% K -6.53% G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-04 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerWSG Tirol (Local)Sturm Graz (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-02 07:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-02 07:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-02 07:45