The School of Odds

WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz

2026-08-01 15:00 UTC — Austrian Football Bundesliga

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Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

WSG Tirol (Local)

Prediction 25.35%3.95fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.348%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.40%25.47%25.35%27.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.553.604.0031%28%28%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 48.80%2.05fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.04%48.73%48.74%50.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.741.881.902.0257%53%53%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.85%3.87fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.818%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.07%25.80%25.91%26.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.7530%28%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV +1.39%E +0.348%K +0.463%G +0.006%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -9.71%E -5.25%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.94%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-18 19:20
Pinnacle3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -1.14%E -0.293%K -0.395%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.29%EV -7.76%E -4.11%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.07%E -0.818%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 19:25
1xBet3.79I 26.39%NM 24.71%EV -3.93%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.56%EV -7.76%E -4.11%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.73%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 02:44
Coolbet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -4.95%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.27%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.94%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 15:50
Betr (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -6.21%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.83%E -2.48%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -4.36%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-24 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.21%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.27%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.36%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-23 05:54
Bovada3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -6.21%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.03%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.65%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 02:44
FanDuel3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.21%E -1.68%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.36%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-23 05:52
DraftKings3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.48%E -2.05%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -6.94%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 13:05
Fanatics3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.94%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-23 06:04
Bet Right3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -8.25%E -4.39%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -8.24%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-25 15:15
Unibet (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.56%EV -8.25%E -4.39%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 06:20
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 02:39
888sport (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 02:39
Mr Green (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 02:39
William Hill3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 02:39
Codere (IT)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-24 06:19
Betway3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -8.75%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.69%E -5.84%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -6.94%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 13:25
Suprabets3.57I 28.01%NM 24.82%EV -9.51%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.50%EV -12.64%E -7.06%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-18 19:23
BetMGM3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -11.28%E -3.22%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -4.83%E -2.48%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.94%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-21 20:05
betfred_uk3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -11.28%E -3.22%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -10.69%E -5.84%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-25 15:03
SportsBet3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.28%E -3.22%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.16%EV -11.67%E -6.44%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-23 05:54
Betclic (FR)3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -11.28%E -3.22%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.00%EV -12.64%E -7.06%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.95%EV -12.63%E -3.74%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-24 15:04
Ladbrokes (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.82%E -4.06%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 20:05
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.82%E -4.06%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 20:05
Neds3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.82%E -4.06%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 20:05
Ladbrokes (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.82%E -4.06%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 20:05
NordicBet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -15.09%E -4.50%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -1.42%E -0.701%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.24%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 15:10
Betsson3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -15.09%E -4.50%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -1.42%E -0.701%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.24%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 15:10
Winamax (DE)3.35I 29.85%NM 26.10%EV -15.09%E -4.50%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.57%EV -12.15%E -6.75%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-24 06:15
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.09%EV -16.35%E -4.96%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.83%EV -12.15%E -6.75%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.09%EV -14.70%E -4.45%K -6.39%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-23 05:54
BoyleSports3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -17.62%E -5.42%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -10.69%E -5.84%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-21 10:05
Winamax (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 26.26%EV -18.89%E -5.90%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 48.29%EV -15.08%E -8.67%K -20.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.46%EV -14.70%E -4.45%K -6.39%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-24 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%5.4%2026-07-24 04:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%5.4%2026-07-24 04:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%5.4%2026-07-24 03:05
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%10.7%2026-07-24 20:40